Even if CMOS density follows Moore's Law for 40 more years, molecular cascades are still going to be smaller.

5:16:48 PM    comment   

1. A free ride over the last mile.  In the old model, the ISPs could ride on the subsidized last mile dial-up connections of the Tel/Cable cos. 
   
2. Private networks.  ISPs ran their own modem farms, LANs, and connections to the Internet (and their central server farm).  
   
3. Centralized services.  Since Internet connectivity cost money, it behooved the ISPs to run private networks that connected to a central hub of services.  The more time customers spent on the private network, the lower the costs of outbound Internet connections. 

The new broadband model has put this traditional approach into a tail-spin.  The Tel/Cable cos and cable companies now tightly control the network connection from the last mile to the Internet.  The new environment is characterized by:

1. The rates the Tel/Cable cos. are charging for connectivity is expensive.  Broadband rates range from ~$40 to $60 a month with virtually all of that going to the Tel/Cable cos.  This leaves little wiggle room for ISPs to charge more for services.
   
2. Private networks and centralized services are a liability.  Since Internet connectivity is bundled in the basic package offered by the Tel/Cable cos., there is little incentive to shunt users via a private networks to centralized services.  These costs now represent a huge burden to the ISPs.  It gets even worse as the ISPs attempt to add rich media content to their service offerings to attract people to broadband.
   
3. ISPs don't have to pay for network.  The flip side of not being able to charge for the network means that the ISPs don't have to pay for the bandwidth used by their customers on Tel/Cable cos. unlimited usage plans. 

The ISPs are now forced into a new mode of operation which is similar (but in many ways worse due to the parallel infrastructure costs needed to maintain dial-up customers) to that experienced by the Internet portals during the Internet boom.  To avoid the inevitable bloodbath that this situation will result in, ISPs are going to have to change their strategy.  Here's how new "broadband" ISPs will change the game:

1. Phase out infrastructure to radically lower costs by moving to the desktop.  A heavy desktop software package that does much more of the work on the desktop will enable the ISPs to take advantage of the ~130 m PCs that were sold this year with GHz processors and copious Gb hard drives.  Work done on the desktop means fewer servers at the central hub and less use of their private networks.   The faster these centralized systems can be downsized (and head count reduced), the more profitable ISPs will be. 
   
2. Focus on connecting desktop users to improve services at no additional cost.  ISPs should focus on riding on the "free" Internet bandwidth provided by the Tel/Cable cos to connect customers across networks.  Desktop publishing tools, P2P connections, and rich desktop clients can be combined in a witch's brew to provide compelling shared media experiences.  This improvement can be done at little to no marginal cost. 
   
3. Market the hell out of it.  With a lower cost structure in place, these new "broadband" ISPs will be able to radically improve margins while adding services.  Higher margins will support higher per customer acquisition fees, which will allow "broadband" ISPs to outspend rivals on marketing and promotion.  

4:58:33 PM    comment   

Here's Andy Grove's prediction: "You know that saying, 'The Internet changes everything'? People now are backing away from it, but I say, Just wait five years. Hundreds of billions of dollars we now spend on voice telecommunications will become a freebie--just like [Cisco CEO] John Chambers has said. That's Moore's Law at work. The entire entertainment industry will be digitally distributed over broadband networks. [Media companies are] going to tip over, because one of them, with its back to the wall, will make the transition, and the others will have to follow. That's Moore's Law at work. Houses will be wireless, broadband will be delivered wirelessly, and home and portable computers and consumer electronics are going to be built to facilitate all of the above..."

4:45:13 PM    comment   

If they can pull this off, it will be good news to Intel since it would provide a basis for companies to continue to upgrade their PCs.  It would also enable IBM to infringe on Microsoft's turf by getting more per desktop than Microsoft gets from companies that adopt this strategy.  Is there a broad-based play here that could go beyond SETI at-home and other freebie projects?  There might be if IBM or someone else can find a way to pay individuals, corporations, and universities for the use of their spare cycles.  How much would the spare cycles on a 2.5 GHz desktop be worth?  The key to this may be to look at the cost of replicating this capability in-house.  The cost to purchase, house, and power a similar machine could easily cost $4,000 a year over three years (two cycles of Moore's Law).  So, given this target cost, would $400 a year in "rental" fees be possible?  It may be.  This would effectively make buying a computer a freebie.  In this model, $4 m a year would buy you the majority of cycles on 10,000 PCs each able to provide multi-gigaflop performance. [John Robb's Radio Weblog]
4:28:25 PM    comment   

Bell Canada to install WLANs: Bell Canada will build robust, authenticated enterprise WLANs for businesses. They're another entrant into the WLAN services market, which IBM Global Services and a division of HP are already ostensibly producing 7-digit revenue from. [via Alan Reiter

12:20:55 PM    comment   

Wi-Fi Alliance pushes interim WEP replacement [InfoWorld] and press release: The Wi-Fi Alliance, the trade group that certifies the Wi-Fi interoperability standard for 802.11a and 802.11b networking equipment, announced today that it would require a new interim security specification called Wi-Fi Protected Access (WPA) to be included in devices by next fall. WPA relies on the interim version of work coming from the IEEE 802.11i task group, which is producing both a backwards compatible and more robust encryption protocol that will work as a first line of defense for Wi-Fi. WPA also supports 802.1x and EAP to allow simply integration with existing enterprise authentication systems.

12:16:55 PM    comment