Coyote Gulch's 2008 Presidential Election

 












































































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  Wednesday, March 5, 2008


Andrew Sullivan: "McCain On The War: His strategy is now clear. He will refuse to debate the question of whether we should have fought in the first pace. And that's understandable. He cannot win on those grounds. And his commitment to end the war as swiftly as possible without inflaming sectarian hatred is as good as we'll get. But here's what I fear: that he will not be honest and candid about the true implications on his strategy: an occupation with no fewer than a hundred thousand troops for his entire first term, and at least 75,000 troops for decades."

"2008 pres"
7:19:19 PM    


Political Wire: "Sen. Hillary Clinton has moved ahead of Sen. Barack Obama in national Democratic nomination preferences, 48% to 44%, according to a new Gallup tracking poll."

Political Wire: "A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Sen. Barack Obama edging Sen. Hillary Clinton 47% to 44%."

Left in the West: "I've long been a skeptic of the idea that Montana matters. There's really only one scenario in which we do -- a primary fight headed for the convention. That's never struck me as that likely. But thanks to primary voters in Ohio and Texas, it is way more likely than it was two days ago. Why? Well, it's still damn near impossible for Hillary Clinton to win a majority of delegates before the convention. But if she pulls an inside straight, gets Michigan and Florida seated, holds her superdelegates, and rises in the polls v. John McCain, it's definitely possible that she becomes the nominee. In other words, hold on to your hats -- I think the Presidential race may be headed our way. And simply because of the scale of resources involved in this Democratic race (and the lack of restrictions on who may participate), this contest is likely to be unlike any primary Montana's ever witnessed."

Andrew Sullivan: "From Kos's counting, the night barely changes anything in the delegate math. Clinton wins Ohio 73 - 68 and Rhode Island 12 to 8. Obama wins Vermont 9 to 6 and wins Texas by 99 to 94 (because his narrow loss in the primaries is offset by a lop-sided win in the caucuses). These numbers may change a little as full caucus results come in, but not by much. Once all the dust has cleared, Obama's delegate lead remains. RCP has it at 1542 for Obama and 1447 for Clinton."

"2008 pres"
6:46:28 PM    


Colorado Confidential: "John McCain clinched the deal for the GOP presidential nomination Tuesday. As for the Democrats, the New York Times has an easy-to-read, detailed list of the 712 Democratic superdelegates as of March 4 - including 254 who support Hillary Clinton, 202 supporting Barack Obama and 256 whose preference is currently unknown. Click here for the complete breakdown."

"2008 pres"
6:33:05 AM    


Political Wire: "Sen. Hillary Clinton defeated Sen. Barack Obama in the Ohio and Texas primaries on Tuesday, 'ending a string of defeats and allowing her to soldier on in a Democratic presidential nomination race that now seems unlikely to end any time soon,' the New York Times reports. 'Mrs. Clinton also won Rhode Island, while Mr. Obama won in Vermont. But the results mean that Mrs. Clinton won the two states she most needed to keep her candidacy alive.'

"The Washington Post: 'But as she vowed to keep campaigning, the tight vote in Texas signaled she may yet face a tough decision in coming weeks. The slim margin in the Texas popular vote and an additional caucus process in which she trailed made clear that she would not win enough delegates to put a major dent in Sen. Barack Obama's lead. And regardless of the results, she emerged from the crucible of Ohio and Texas with a campaign mired in debt and riven by dissension.'"

Obama '08 Community Blogs: "Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton: 'Tonight was the Clinton campaign's last best chance to make a significant dent in our lead in pledged delegates and they have failed. In our latest projections, we will win the Texas caucus with a double-digit margin and any pledged delegate shift will be absolutely minimal. In fact, Clinton's chances of regaining the delegate lead actually decreased tonight, as the number of delegates remaining dwindles.'"

John McCain: "Thank you. Thank you, Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island. I am very grateful for the broad support you have given our campaign. And I am very pleased to note that tonight, my friends, we have won enough delegates to claim with confidence, humility and a sense of great responsibility that I will be the Republican nominee for President of the United States.

"I want to thank all of you here and all the Republicans, Independents, and independent thinking Democrats, in all parts of this great country, who supported our campaign for the nomination, and have brought us across the finish line first, an accomplishment that once seemed to more than a few doubters unlikely."

Wash Park Prophet: "Low Republican turnout in [Tuesday's] primaries and caucuses is to be expected. Their race was effectively over before it began. But, given the Republican tendency to rally around a clear winner, McCain's showings among those hardy few Republicans that did vote is remarkably low. In Texas, McCain garnered only about 52% of the vote. In Ohio, McCain won 60% of the vote. Rhode Island Republicans gave McCain 65% of their vote. Liberal leaning Vermont Republicans gave him 72% of their vote, but aren't typical of the Republican party at large. McCain is a GOP nominee with plurality support, but not a mandate from the mix of Republican and independent voters who have a say in the decision. I haven't crunched the exit poll numbers, but it isn't clear to me that McCain was even a plurality candidate among Republican voters prior to Romney's departure from the race."

Josh Marshall: "MSNBC and Fox call Texas for Clinton. Remember, that's the popular vote in the primary. That accounts for 126 of the Texas delegates; 67 more are up for grabs in the caucus. The Texas primary has no bonus for getting an overall win. So with the margin this close, that's probably a tie in delegates -- even conceivable that Obama picks up more because of the way the apportionment works. But assume that's basically a wash. Then there's the caucus. People assume, though that's only based on earlier caucuses, that Obama will win there. So keep in mind the very distinct possibility, even a probability, that Obama will take more delegates out of Texas than Clinton, even assuming he narrowly loses the primary part of the contest."

"2008 pres"
6:22:43 AM    



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