May 22, 2003

Writing in the Globe and Mail, transportation analyst Richard Gilbert predicts the death of the suburbs by 2020 as gasoline prices rise to $6 a litre and natural gas prices soar so high that heating a house will cost $3,000 a month. He states: Prices [of natural gas] will moderate only when much of North America's industry moves to Russia (where natural gas remains inexpensive), or consumers cut back by closing off several rooms in large homes each winter, or more coal is used for electricity generation, or all of these things. Coal of course is available in abundant supply and in the United States it is the leading source of energy. It is bizarre to suggest that instead of burning more coal; people would close rooms in their homes or move North America's industry to Russia. Gilbert also makes no mention of wind power – which would be competitive with further rises in natural gas prices. Additional use of nuclear power is also a possibility as is further development of the Alberta oil sands. Overall this is a very alarming view of the future that ignores the realities of the energy market – when prices rise people found alternatives. 11:57:45 PM