On Domino Theories

The nice thing about a domino theory is that it offers an intuitive metaphor for change, for inevitable propagating effects, for explaining why one thing must necessarily lead to another. If you advocate change, you'd be well served to find a domino theory to advance your cause. It will make your ultimate objectives appear unavoidable and the challenges mild.

So it goes, we are told, with the upcoming blossoming of democracy and freedom in the Middle East, thanks to a little initial push offered by the United States. It's all about dominos, they tell us.

But the problem with domino theories, is that they are destructive. The dominoes fall, and in falling they bring further destruction. The established world of upright dominoes comes crashing down as the falling of one and then another advances across the floor.

And what about the Middle East? It might be true that defeating totalitarian regimes like that of Saddam Hussein is a destructive process, and to that extent a domino theory might indeed be relevant. But what comes next?

Do I understand correctly that we are to believe that instituting free and open institutions of government where none have existed before, that replacing brutal autocracies and privileged monarchies with elections and due process is as easy as the pushing over a domino? I think not.

Toppling regimes might perhaps be the stuff of falling dominoes, but replacing them with something new is not. It is an act of creation. For something like that a theory of dominoes offers no hint as to the real efforts required, and we'd best beware of snake oil salesmen who tell us otherwise.

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