Sunday, August 1, 2004

The Myth of Disruptive Technology No such thing! says John Dvorak A disruptive technology is defined as a low-performance, less expensive technology that enters a heated-up scene where the established technology is outpacing people's ability to adapt to it. The new technology gains a foothold, continues to improve, and then bumps the older, once-better technology into oblivion. Sounds good. The problem is that there is not one example of this ever happening....This concept only services venture capitalists who need a new term for the PowerPoint show to sucker investors. My very, very smart friend Scott Butner (source of this item), observes 'Normally I don't like Dvorak, but have to admit I agree with him here. But then, I've decided that I'm more of an evolutionary than a revolutionary[sigma]maybe because Darwin has, in hindsight, stood up to the last 100 years better than Marx. ' My perspective: I think Dvorak's gone a tad too far here with his own absolutes (Dvorak? No! I'm shocked!) but not very. (But need to reread Christensen to see if Dvorak has represented him accurately. Your thoughts? PS: Dvorak goes on to say: One problem in our society is the increasing popularity of false-premise concepts that are blindly used for decision making....The concept of disruptive technology is not the only daft idea floating around to be lapped up obediently by the business community. There are others. But the way these dingbat bromides go unchallenged makes you wonder whether anyone can think independently anymore. He got that right. (And not just about technology!) 5:21:15 PM    comment []  trackback []

The cost of green building The San Jose Mercury-News printed my letter to the editor today, in response to their recent article on green building, but they abridged it. Here's the full text (including some references): To the Editor: Your otherwise excellent article, Going Green in Los Gatos, says 'Going green adds about 10 to 15 percent to construction costs. But over time, it will yield savings through lower energy and water bills and healthier workers who are exposed to more natural light and less use of toxic paints and adhesives.' The second sentence is true. The first is not, even though it's commonly believed -- even by building industry professionals. A comprehensive analysis of green building projects by the State of California shows first cost increments more in the 0-2% range -- if 'greening' is designed in, not slapped on as an afterthought. The Costs and Financial Benefits of Green Buildings: A Report to California's Sustainable Building Task Force finds that 'an upfront investment of less than two percent of construction costs yields life cycle savings of over ten times the initial investment." (For example, 'an initial upfront investment of up to $100,000 to incorporate green building features into a $5 million project would result in a savings of at least $1 million over the life of the building' -- only a 2% additional 'first cost' investment, and a nearly 50% per year return on that investment.) That's a pretty handsome return, with plenty of side benefits, and almost no risk. The key to profitability: bring 'greening' to the design process early, and make the design and building process integrated, not piecemeal. Sincerely, Gil Friend President & CEO Natural Logic is a strategic consulting firm (based in Berkeley CA) that helps companies and communities build profit, competitive advantage and quality of life through exceptional environmental performance. 2:08:00 PM    comment []  trackback []

China turning to energy efficiency for solving its energy shortage [Environmental Entreprenuers] is 'a national community of business people who believe in protecting the environment while building economic prosperity.' Their July Update includes a facinating piece on energy policy in China. China's electric power consumption in 2004 will grow at a breathtaking 11% over that of 2003, with some regions growing nearly 25%. Chinese policy makers are clearly and publicly stating that the country needs to make fundamental changes to deal with its skyrocketing energy consumption.... China's has a policy goal of quadrupling its economy by 2020 while only doubling its electricity consumption.... [U]nder business as usual, China's annual electricity requirements [would] nearly triple.... China's top governmental agency recently issued national policy guidelines urging every province to develop and implement demand-side management. This high-level policy attention, along with the successful pioneering of DSM pilots in key regions, may pave the way for the introduction of DSM throughout the country.... E2 is actively encouraging members with specific interest in China to support the China-U.S. Energy Efficiency Alliance as part of their E2 membership. I wonder: Will energy strategy be yet another way that China leapfrog's a sleepy United States? See also NRDC'sChina Clean Energy Program. 2:00:43 PM    comment []  trackback []

15 Global Challenges The Millennium Challenge from the American Council for the United National University offers 15 Global Challenges Facing Humanity, and invites your comment. Like what, for instance? Like: 1. How can sustainable development be achieved for all? 2. How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? 3. How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? 4. How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? 5. How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives? 6. How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? 7. How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? 8. How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune micro-organisms be reduced? 9. How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change? 10. How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction? 11. How can the changing status of women help improve the human condition? 12. How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? 13. How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? 14. How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? 15. How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions? 1:41:28 PM    comment []  trackback []