Commentary: A glass half full.

Technology optimism among consumers peaked during 2000--just like the stock market. But in the past few years, the ranks of the technophobes have shrunk. [CNET News.com]

This has implications for e-Learning as well, even though the numbers are about consumers. First, technology optimism among consumers at large trailed technology adoption by business, as business technology adoption trailed technology optimism among the early adopters. As technophobia (or more likely, just making different choices about where to spend the disposable income rather than being afraid of technology) wanes, we could expect to see more consumers willing to go online for education and training. How fast this will happen depends on several factors, including the speed and strength of the economic recovery, how people deal with the "jobless" recovery itself (they may choose never to go back to work in the traditional sense), and whether business continues to pay for training or shifts that burden off onto the employee. The rate of "outsourcing" will also have its effect, as will confidence levels after the next election (in the US at least). Unknown is the effect of people's fears of travel or being in a large group in a public place. 

The more people see themselves as being responsible for their own learning, the more economic advantage there is to actually expanding one's individual skill set, the less money people have to spend on self-development, and the greater their disinclination to travel, the more likely it is that consumers will turn to online training and education to improve their economic potential.

So -- my guess is that in two years, if someone is going to prosper as an online provider of education and self-development, one will need to already "be there" with product, services, and marketing. My sense is that niches are best, rather than offering broadband education. Some content will be commodity stuff and won't sell for much "per person" and other content will go for a premium. This is the time to decide where to be in the market and start staking out a claim. This year (2003) is too early to start -- too long to payday. Next year (2004) is the year to begin development. Marketing needs to be timed to catch the wave of optimism in the US following the elections.

Remember, you read it here first. 8-)

2:46:30 PM    

ISSN for Weblogs

You can apply for and use an International Standard Serial Number for your Weblog. Your blog will then officially exist in the worldwide standardized encyclopedia of periodicals. [ISSN for Weblogs]

What a great idea!

1:32:30 PM