Iowa Election Markets: ROF ahead of Dean
I wandered over to the the Iowa Electronic Markets this afternoon to check out my favorite market, the 2004 Democratic National Convention Market.
When I checked the current trading value, this is what I saw:
Quotes current as of 15:45:01 CST, Thursday, September 25, 2003.
|
Symbol |
Bid |
Ask |
Last |
Low |
High |
Average |
|
CLIN_NOM |
0.101 |
0.114 |
0.101 |
0.099 |
0.106 |
0.100 |
|
DEAN_NOM |
0.269 |
0.275 |
0.275 |
0.270 |
0.288 |
0.276 |
|
GEPH_NOM |
0.055 |
0.070 |
0.055 |
0.055 |
0.138 |
0.078 |
|
KERR_NOM |
0.155 |
0.160 |
0.165 |
0.157 |
0.165 |
0.160 |
|
LIEB_NOM |
0.051 |
0.060 |
0.076 |
0.049 |
0.076 |
0.063 |
|
ROF_NOM |
0.321 |
0.346 |
0.346 |
0.320 |
0.346 |
0.334 |
I find it interesting that the Remainder of Field (Clark, Kucinich, heh) are stronger bids than Dean and the wannabes.
Ok, take a good look at today's graph:
Whoa! The Remainder of Field (Dean was still lumped in with ROF at that time) took a big drop around the middle of September! What happened? Well, Mr. Clark officially announced he wants the Democratic Party nomination, and the big bettors like this guy. Since ROF isn't big enough to hold Dean and Clark, Dean gets his own symbol - DEAN-NOM (not on this graph yet) - and Clark has ROF all to himself. Notice, as soon as the stock split, sort of speak, it started rising.
There's something else I noticed, too. Look at the Price History for September. Here's a snip showing Dean and Clark, er, I mean ROF on the first day Dean and ROF could be bought, er, I mean traded separately:
|
Date |
Contract |
Units |
$Volume |
Low |
High |
Avg |
Last |
| 09/19/03 |
CLIN_NOM |
172 |
20.486 |
0.101 |
0.133 |
0.119 |
0.124 |
| 09/19/03 |
DEAN_NOM |
788 |
288.625 |
0.320 |
0.599 |
0.366 |
0.430 |
| 09/19/03 |
GEPH_NOM |
63 |
4.707 |
0.071 |
0.092 |
0.075 |
0.088 |
| 09/19/03 |
KERR_NOM |
291 |
39.027 |
0.127 |
0.159 |
0.134 |
0.153 |
| 09/19/03 |
LIEB_NOM |
445 |
13.998 |
0.025 |
0.040 |
0.031 |
0.040 |
| 09/19/03 |
ROF_NOM |
1,611 |
392.441 |
0.000 |
0.556 |
0.244 |
0.220 |
1611 and 788 are the highest numbers of financial contracts traded of a any code, on any day since the beginning in February.
Looks to me like the Democratic Convention in Boston is going to be the Clark and Dean show.
Now maybe I can start taking a better look at my favorite campaign subjects - force transformation, the Patriot Act, and the Department of Peace.
5:53:07 PM by Critt Jarvis | permalink |  |
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