Possible Futures for Holistic Health
From our survey summary report, here are some of the possible futures we imagine for holistic health and Western medicine:
Possible Future - Holistic Health Fades Away
Many people in the Western medical establishment seem to view holistic health practices as a fad that will eventually burn itself out. In this case, the current holistic health practitioners would simply run out of clients and go out of business, taking jobs in Western medicine or elsewhere. Holistic health clients would 'come to their senses' and reject holistic remedies, and resume with Western medical treatments.
Likelihood: Given the information we've gathered, and our opinions, this scenario seems almost impossible. The trends are in the opposite direction, and there would have to be a huge shift in public opinion before this scenario would be likely.
Possible Future - Holistic Health Comes Under Western Medical Control
This could be referred to as the 'complementary medicine' future. In this scenario, Western medical doctors, hospitals and insurance companies see the benefits of holistic health practices and they incorporate them into their work. Some MDs and DOs take training in various holistic modalities, such as acupuncture, homeopathy, herbal remedies and others. They also hire holistic practitioners to work in their offices, or refer certain patients to holistic practitioners who operate independently.
The MD or DO is the central diagnostic authority. and once they work with the patient to mutually determine the best course of action, they either administer the treatment or testing themselves, or they refer the patient to another practitioner or Western medical specialist for further discussion, testing or treatment. The model is essentially unchanged from today, except that the holistic practices are added to the arsenal of the MD or DO. This means that MDs and DOs become knowledgeable in holistic practices, their best usage, how they work and their limitations. They add this to their current knowledge of drugs and surgical procedures, and make decisions based on the entire realm. They consult computer databases to make sure they've taken all the holistic factors into account, and the various interactions between therapies, alternative and Western medical.
Likelihood: This scenario was favored by some MDs and DOs that we spoke to. They saw holistic health fitting into the current Western medical system, as an important piece to the puzzle. This scenario seems quite likely. It assumes that the Western medical system acts quickly enough to adapt to the rapid influx of holistic healthcare methods, and is able to embrace it and integrate it, not just as additional therapies but also as alternative mindsets. The mindset shift would be the hardest. Moving from an allopathic model to a holistic model would be extremely difficult for many MDs and DOs (the people we surveyed were the exception [^] we selected them especially for this reason).
Possible Future - Western Medicine as an Option Within Holistic Healthcare
This scenario could be called the 'Berlin Wall of Western medicine comes down' future.
In this scenario, Western medicine continues its opposition to holistic healthcare. Consumers, who are tired of the parts of Western medicine that have not worked well, increase their usage of 'healthcare alternatives' and begin to shun the Western medical system, which pushes itself further into oblivion by continuing to protest against the trends. By voting with their dollars, consumers push the Western medical system into crisis, where treatments are viewed as too expensive, too dangerous and too ineffective to be taken seriously.
Slowly, state and federal laws change to reflect the new reality and holistic providers become the primary mode of healthcare, while Western medicine shrinks to become a component of holistic care.
Diagnosis changes significantly. The new diagnosis depends on what the patient wishes, but it may be one or a combination of the following:
- naturopathic physicians who diagnosis and suggest treatment
- medical intuitive who can tell psychically what is wrong with a patient and suggest a path forward
- Chinese diagnosis methods, like tongue diagnosis
- Iridology, using the iris of the eye to understand the issues with a person's health
- Western medical tests, used as an expensive last resort when other diagnosis methods fail
Western medicine in general, is held as a highly treasured, but seldom used alternative. Drug companies shrink to shadows of their former selves, and some Western medical clinics and hospitals go out of business for lack of clientele.
The hospital has been transformed. Now truly a place of healing, they are pleasant to visit and a joy to stay. Traditional Chinese medicine, ayurvedic medicine, homeopathy and every holistic process is available and at the ready. Employees of the holistic hospital include body workers, energy workers, semantic educators, aromatherapists, and meditation, yoga, and chi gong teachers, among many others. Patients choose their modalities based on long conversations with naturopathic physicians or holistic MDs or DOs. Surgery is done, but rarely. A patient can expect, and look forward to, regular massage sessions while lying in a hospital bed. Resting time for patients is held sacred, interruptions are not allowed. Blood tests are done when necessary, but are generally not needed, because other types of diagnosis are easier, safer and less invasive. Lemon balm aromatherapy wafts through the air of the room of an Alzheimer patient. Music is customized for each patient, with silence an alternative as well, using noise cancellation and directional speaker technology. Televisions are in each room, but patients generally benefit more from the amateur comedians, musicians and performers who entertain them in person when the patient requests them. All are employed by the hospital, based on concrete studies that laughing and music enjoyment contribute greatly to illness recovery.
Each patients has a doctor (naturopathic, MD, DO, etc.) who is responsible for their health end-to-end. This doctor has been a partner in the patient[base ']s health for each hospital visit, if there has been more than one. She knows every holistic and Western medicine and process that is being used on this patient and when, and she understands each and every interaction between therapy, often consulting a computer database of interaction results.
The patients get the care they need, and the costs are quite low. Technology exists, but it pales in comparison to what was used years ago, when Western medicine was commonplace. Technology to raise and lower beds, make calls to nurses, monitor life signs and allow patients to see and talk to far-off relatives is used frequently. Drugs are almost completely gone, except for certain formulas that cannot be replace by herbs, vitamins, minerals and homeopathics.
Likelihood: This scenario was seen as most likely by the majority of our survey participants. It may seem like a fairy tale to some, but it is definitely compelling. We think that it is a possible future if Western medicine objects too strenuously and too long to the holistic health boom. Many industries have created their own undoing by clinging to a recent past and wearing blinders to new conditions that were less obvious than today's healthcare crisis.
Possible Future - Medical Insurance Disappears, Re-Emerges
In this scenario, health insurance becomes used by only a small minority of Americans, until finally it disappears completely. With holistic health approaches, prevention is emphasized far more than cures. Health insurance which takes the opposite approach ('We pay when you get sick') gets fewer and fewer subscribers until it is not sustainable as a business and it goes bust.
In its place, a new type of insurance emerges. a new form of insurance emerges. Perhaps called 'wellness insurance,' this type of service provides a wide-range of holistic health services, focused on prevention as well as sickness. The members in this type of plan can make use of any type of holistic services, as long as the providers are within the network owned by the insurance company. The client pays a small co-payment and then has access to yoga classes, meditation training, body work, and all other types of holistic healthcare that the insurance company actuaries have determined contribute to a long, healthy life.
The insurance companies who venture into this strategy profit so substantially from it that other insurance companies quickly jump to the new way of business in order to keep up, hoping to catch up in terms of earnings and popularity.
Likelihood: It may be surprising to some, but this scenario is quite likely. Some futurists have pointed to insurance companies as the potential leaders into the holistic health world. Insurance companies are certainly stodgy, but the basis of their financial services is to pay out less in claims than they take in as premiums. Simultaneously, they must keep premiums lower than their competitors. If one insurance company creates a plan based primarily on holistic healthcare, it would almost inevitably be cheaper, more effective and safer. Result? Lower premiums, better service, and wide acceptance by consumers hungry for alternatives.
Possible Future - The 'Inner Physician' Becomes Primary Care
In this scenario, Americans take responsibility for their own health. They use information provided holistic educators and the Internet, and they create their own health plans, including diet, exercise and natural remedies.
Western medical suppliers (doctors, hospitals, etc.) go out of business, as do holistic practitioners. The people who experience a tremendous influx of business are those who train people in better ways to live. Many holistic practitioners are also educators, so they may simply shift their emphasis to education instead of consultation.
Likelihood: This scenario seems unlikely in the short term. It seems like we will need to go through a transitional step before Americans take full responsibility for their own health and the need for Western and holistic doctors is gone. That day may never come.
Possible Future - The Gift Economy Starts with Holistic Health
James Redfield, in his book The Celestine Vision, outlines what he describes as the 'next economy.' As the American economy shifts more and more to an information-based economy, we will get to the point where we simply provide information to one another for free, expecting nothing in return from the person we help. Instead, the entire community offers so much free information that it is not necessary to charge for it. He sees that as even major services, like electrical power and telephone service, become more decentralized, the exchange of money will be unnecessary.
People involved in the computer field have seem glimmers of this vision with something called 'open source software.' This is software that has been contributed to the world by programmers who wish nothing in return, and who are committed (as a group) to maintaining the software, keeping it up-to-date and removing bugs (problems) as time goes on.
The popularity of open source software has been absolutely amazing. A computer operating system, called Linux, has beaten Microsoft Windows in an extremely important sector called Web servers (computers that host Web pages on the Internet). This is nothing short of amazing, considering that Microsoft is the largest software company in the world and Linux was produced by a group of people who were paid nothing and do not even belong to a particular company.
Some holistic health practitioners we met in our surveys showed us some aspects of a gift economy. Certainly, students who were not yet licensed in their practice would practice on clients for free, but there was more than that. Some fully licensed or certified practitioners still did some or all of their work for free. They considered the benefits they got from their practice to be all they required as payment. It is important to point out that these people were either part-time practitioners or retired with full pension, or both. But the discovery was still amazing to us, and provided an interesting glimpse of a possible future.
Likelihood: It does not seem possible that we will move directly to a gift economy any time soon. If holistic health truly takes over the country, and its principles are intact as it does, it is possible that this will be a first step to a gift economy in health, where people exchange health services and advice with no expectation of a direct return. Who knows??
8:51:31 PM 
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