Saturday, 15 November 2003


2021: Hey, who took our schools away?

At the Upper Hutt meeting it was good to see that the Minister accepted the assertions that his population projections are wrong. His overhead slides now show that the projected number of empty seats will be 60 000, not 70 000! So, if he is using the Statistics New Zealand projections set in 2001, it means that in the space of two years, his projected shortage has diminished by a large percentage! I decided to do my own (unscientific) projections:

If we continue to reduce the number of empty space by 10 000 every two years what happens when we get to 2021? Why, 30 000 more students than we have today!

A mythical projection of empty seats in New Zealand schools

And where are all the schools that these extra students are going to use? Well, way back in 2003, Trevor closed them all! What a legacy.

On a serious note, though, the large change in projected numbers in such a short space of time shows that projections are just that: projections. If they are wrong and the schools are gone, where do the students go? So much for building "sustainable" schools.

Oh, and whilst I am gazing into a crystal ball: The All Blacks to win tonight! Go New Zealand!


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7:55:08 PM