Wednesday, June 08, 2005

Tropical Depression One Update 090300Z At 11 PM EDT the poorly defined center of Tropical Depression One was at 17.6 North 83.9 West, 210 miles west-southwest of Grand Cayman.  Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph and minimum central pressure is 1003 millibars (29.62").  The depression is moving to the north at 6 mph. Tropical Depression One Advisory #2 (National Hurricane Center) The wind speeds were increased on the basis of the last observation from Hurricane Hunters.  Its appearance on satellite is not impressive.  Upper level winds are unfavorable for development currently, but are expected to become slightly favorable over the next day.  The 72 hour  forecast has landfall in the vicinity of the Alabama/Mississippi state line on Saturday night. Tropical Depression One Discussion #2 (NHC) I've been puzzling over the infrared satellite loop. It's really difficult to pick out a center of circulation from that.  From that alone, one would think that the center is about 100 miles north/northeast of the given position.  According to the discussion, that is about where the strongest winds are at.  I'm not sure what to make of it. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:11:08 PM   trackback []

Some June storm history While the hurricane season starts on June 1, it is not uncommon for the month to pass by without so much as a tropical depression (as was the case last year). Storms that do manage to form and develop tend to do so in the west Carribean and Gulf of Mexico since that is where the warmest water is during this time of year. Because the water is not at its peak temperature yet (and the relatively small area of the Gulf,) such storms are rarely major. Here are some highlights and trivia of June storms (based on the past 50 years): 16 storms made landfall in the United States in June. Six of those did so as hurricanes, two of them major. Florida leads the way in landfall location (seven storms). Texas and Louisiana have four apiece. The strongest and deadliest of them was Hurricane Audrey, which hit Louisana in 1956. A category 4 storm with 125 knot winds, she claimed the lives of 390 people. Hurricane Alma was a major hurricane in June, 1966. It cut across the Florida Panhandle and Georgia without losing Tropical Storm strength. Hurricane Agnes of 1972 managed to regain tropical storm strength over North Carolina despite having been over land for three days. It made a second landfall in New York. The complete oddball of these storms is 1981's Tropical Storm Bret. It formed due north of Bermuda and made landfall on the Eastern Shore of Virginia. A peculiar way to make landfall at any time of the year, much less June. The most common name among the sixteen: Allison. The 1989 and 2001 editions hit Texas, while the 1995 one hit Florida. The 1995 edition of Allison is also the closest analog to Tropical Depression One, having formed a mere 21 miles away nautical miles away from TD 1's birthplace. Florida Referendums 2004, Weather comment []9:17:04 PM   trackback []

Tropical Depression One forms The Hurricane Hunter found winds just strong enough to justify calling the disturbance a tropical depression. At 5 PM EDT it was 235 miles south-west of Grand Cayman Island with winds of 30 mph and minimum central pressure of 1004 mb (29.65"). The current forecast is for it to develop into a tropical storm in the next day or two while heading to the Gulf Coast of the United States. Tropical Depression One Advisory #1 Tropical Depression One Discussion #1 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:17:25 PM   trackback []

Tropical Watch The first tropical system of the year may be near. From this morning's Tropical Weather Outlook: SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AFFECTING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. Details in the Tropical Weather Discussion: 1004 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N ACROSS THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND W CUBA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N82W. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNW TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WERE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL FORMATION LATER IN THE WEEK. The current Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly chart shows that the water temperatures are about a degree (Celsius) warmer. than the long term average; another favorable factor for development. According to the Plan of the Day for the Hurricane Hunters, the plane will be in the area at 4 PM EDT. I'll be keeping an eye on this. LATER: At 12:45 PM EDT, NOAA's Satellite Services Division estimated the disturbance to be of tropical depression strength. We'll see what the Hurricane Hunters say... 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []1:42:51 PM   trackback []