Thursday, June 09, 2005

Tropical Storm Arlene Update 100300Z At 11 PM EDT the center of Arlene was 75 miles south-southeast of Cuba and moving north at 8 mph.  Maximum sustained winds and minmum central pressure are unchanged from the previous advisory. Tropical Storm  Advisory Number 7 (NHC) The poor organization of Arlene makes it really difficult to pinpoint a center.  The fix given in this advisory is an average of several vortices that could be a center.  Track and intensity forecasts are unchanged. Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion #7 (NHC) At several points tonight it has appeared that a new center is/was forming closer to the convection (which would indicate the storm being capable of becoming better organized).  Those appearances have not panned out up to this point.  As I have drill this weekend in Orlando, this will probably be my last post until the 5 PM EDT advisory tomorrow.  2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:33:00 PM   trackback []

Tropical Storm Arlene Update 092100Z At 5 PM EDT, the ill-defined center of Arlene was 115 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba and moving north at 8 mph.  Winds remain at 40 mph; minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56") Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory #6 (NHC) Forecast track has shifted back to the west a little bit with landfall ocurring in the vicinity of the AL/MS state line.  The storm continues to appear unorganized, therefore not much change in the intensity forecast. Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion #6 (NHC) Arlene has caused a flood watch to be posted in South Florida ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS EXPANDED THE * FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA * UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING * TROPICAL STORM ARLENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST GULF COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND. 3 TO 5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS OVER AND OVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS. EVEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDING METRO MIAMI...FORT LAUDERDALE...AND WEST PALM BEACH...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE... Flood Watch (National Weather Service Miami) NWS Mobile has posted a coastal flood watch for coastal counties of Alabama and north-west Florida: 400 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE APPROACHES THE GULF COAST THIS WEEKEND... ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE SHORES OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THE COASTAL SECTIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM ARLENE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST...THROUGH THE MIDDLE GULF. AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW...INCREASING WAVE ACTION SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL OF COASTAL EROSION. HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 12 AND 2 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF TIDAL RISES TO 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. THE EXTENSIVE EROSION CAUSED BY HURRICANE IVAN LAST YEAR REMAINS AND THIS MAKES COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM GULF SHORES...EASTWARD MUCH MORE VULNERABLE TO COASTAL FLOODING. AS A RESULT...INCREASED TIDE LEVELS COULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE WASH-UP AND ADDITIONAL EROSION ALONG AREA BEACHES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND AS WELL AS OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF MOBILE BAY... AND THE BEACHES FROM FORT MORGAN TO DESTIN..." (Coastal Flood Watch NWS Mobile) Like I said earlier, definitely wet... other than that, not much to talk about... 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:34:10 PM   trackback []

Tropical Storm Arlene Update 091800Z Nothing new to report really, other than a tidbit mentioned in Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory #5A.  NOAA has a new  buoy conveniently located in the Yucatan basin.  Buoy 42056 is 55 nautical miles west-northwest of Arlene's center and is currently recording winds of 25.3 knots (28.8 mph).  2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []1:51:25 PM   trackback []

Tropical Storm Arlene Update 091500Z As most have probably heard this morning the first tropical storm of the season was declared this morning at 8 AM EDT. The upgrade was on the basis of a single observation from a ship, something that I don't have distinct memories of having happened before. At 11 AM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was 190 miles west of Grand Cayman and 165 miles south-southeast of the western edge of Cuba and moving to the north at 8 mph. Winds are near 40 mph and minimum central pressure is 1002 millibars (29.59"). Tropical Storm Arelene Advisory #5 (NHC) There have not been new surface observations supporting tropical storm strength, but satellite imagery does support the idea of it being stronger than it was yesterday. The forecast track reasoning is unchanged; the storm will move along the periphery of a high pressure ridge developing in the Atlantic reaching into the southeast US. The three day forecast is only ever so slightly to the right of previous forecasts. The discussion states that the forecast is consistent with the FSU Superensemble (which was the best model for track prediction last season). As far as intensity goes, the reasoning is also unchanged. Conditions should get slightly more favorable for development allowing for modest strenghening before landfall. Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion #5 (NHC) According to the plan of the day, the Hurricane Hunter should be on station now, but I haven't seen any observations from it yet. at 1800Z (2 PM EDT). Once again, the infrared satellite loop gives a deceiving appearance of the position of the center of circulation. It is more apparent on the visual loop. An assymetric structure to say the least. With such awkward form and large size, it is hard to see it being able to strengthen much. It's certainly going to be a wet weekend on the Florida panhandle, but it may not be exceptionally windy (relative to tropical systems, that is). 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []12:01:27 PM   trackback []