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 Sunday, August 3, 2003
Would Somebody Please Explain to Me.... Would somebody please explain to me how it can be that Fox polls routinely have George W. Bush's approval-minus-disapproval rating twenty percentage points higher than Zogby? I mean, this isn't rocket science: this is polling. If I wanted to generate such huge differences--differences that dwarf sampling standard deviations at least five-fold--I wouldn't know how to go about it. How do they do it?
[Semi-Daily Journal]
A fascinating graph. Click on it to see a bigger version. The effects of 9/11 and the War on Iraq is not lost on this administration. The cynical would expect another October surprise, since this crew may have experience with those sorts of things. What I find more interesting is the same thing that Brad does. How large and consistent the spread is between groups. The different organizations must use the same internal procedures, since their spots on the downward curves are consistant (i.e. if they are higher, they stay above the median value. If they are lower, they stay below the median value.) but the spreads indicate some problems with the procedures.
The other interesting thing is the rate of decline in his popularity. Before 9/11 it dropped at the rate of about 5 points per month. After 9/11 until March of this year, it pretty consistantly fell at a much slower rate, about 3.3 points per month. But since April, it has dropped at the highest rate of his term, about 7.5 points per month. At this rate, in about 3 months he will be equally approved and disapproved. If the trends continue,and nothing happens before the end of the year, he will have more people who disapprove of his presidency than approve. His political pundits must know this and it will be interesting to see what they do to try and halt the decline. 11:24:55 PM 
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You can see the Dean ad at this site. Not an earth-shaking ad but novel for this early in the campaign. Most candidates are concentrating very hard on the early states. 10:54:53 PM
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A very intriguing idea. If I buy a CD, I can make backup copies, etc. for my personal use. How about if 2 of us buy a CD? Do we both get to make our own copies? How about if a million people buy 100,000 CDs? How about if those 1 million people are shareholders in a company that owns those CDs? This is a very interesting idea. The only problem I see is that new stock is only issued by stock splits. If there are only 1 million shares initially but 60 million possible owners, there is going to be a real run up in price. See, if one sells the stock, you have to destroy all you copies of the music, at least if you want to remain legal. So very few people will want to sell. This means that a small supply of stock with a lot of buyers. I am not sure I want to invest in a company that will try to make so much money based on the needs of its customers. Restricting access is not a paradigm for the new age.
I mean, who gets the IPO? Like all things, only those in the know will get them. The average customer STILL gets screwed. This is a neat idea but the average person will not make out very well. But then, maybe for most people it will not be a money making proposition. They will just get access. If demand raises the price, you can just wait until a split occurs, then get it at the regular price. Humm. This gets more interesting as I think of it.
A stock that mainly provides you access. A company whose only customers are its shareholders. I'd like to see what some economists think. 10:48:20 PM
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Dean Heads to Texas. DEAN HEADS TO TEXAS....I have to hand it to Howard Dean: he really knows how to get in George Bush's face. Last week he conducted a special fundraising blitz that raised half a million dollars for a "secret project," and... [CalPundit]
Not only did he use the internet to help raise $500,000 in a week, but by going to Texas with media ads, he will create more publicity for his campaign. You know that the news media will have to mention this. Pretty smart way to get national coverage for a small ad campaign in Austin. It should play well to the Democrats. 9:58:35 PM
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Soccer tournaments make it hard to post on a blog. But it was a fun weekend. Now for some real work. 5:34:01 PM
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