Are Pakistan's forces facing al Qaeda in peril?. This was something I anticipated (it was what I would have done as a commander). A Pakistani supply convoy was attacked by tribal/al Qaeda/Taliban forces today resulting in 12 dead and 22 wounded.
Pakistan rapidly deployed (perhaps hastily) 5,000 troops deep into rough/unforgiving terrain to capture some al Qaeda affiliated operatives (most likely Uzbeks). They met more resistance than expected (due to the quality of the fighters they faced and the quality of the entrenchments). The extended length of the operation now puts them at risk if supplies can be cut.
The tribes in this region are nominally under Pakistani rule, and very defensive of their autonomy. IF (and this is a big if) this situation turns bad, it could result in the vicious Scythian "swarming" attacks of the type that drove the Brits and Russians out of Kabul. A defeat like that level would spell the end of Musharaff and US efforts in the area in two short weeks. [John Robb's Weblog]
While I agree about Musharaff, I don't think such a defeat would necessarily end the US efforts. The Feds might well scrape up what troops they have left (perhaps National Guard and Reserve troops) and invade Pakistan. While I don't think such an invasion would go well, it certainly wouldn't be an end.
10:38:22 AM 
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