Friday, June 14, 2002

I HAVEN'T HAD THIS PROBLEM, BUT... Lawrence still rules! Lawrence rules! [Sam Ruby] 2:29:48 PM     Comments[]

THE CARRIERS' CARRIER Had the writer of this story bothered to analyze Level 3's earliest presentations up to the present, some of the concerns he raises would have been answered. Clearly, Level 3 didn't build a 20,000 mile next generation network just to distribute software. Further, this writer stepped into the same trap that others have lost legs in. He wrongly assumes that dark fiber in the ground is somehow equivalent to "excess network capacity." Barring a world-wide depression of several years duration, there is simply no way to conclude that there is excess network capacity ready to carry traffic. Dark fiber is "potential capacity" awaiting investment and construction to light it. Each year that passes the economics of lighting old generations of fiber become losing propositions. Fiber and the optoelectronics required to light it follow Moore's Law rather than the practices traditionally followed by legacy phone companies. The worst offense in the article is to site yet another network/teleco failure and extrapolate the same for any other player in the teleco industry. Someone once said, "when you catch your competitor doing something stupid, get out of his way." Level 3's strategy: Vision or folly?. The network operator's new plan to acquire software distributors could be ahead of its time, or it could be a last-ditch effort to keep the company in business. [CNET News.com] 9:09:58 AM     Comments[]

IBM FROM AN INVESTOR'S POINT OF VIEW For anyone who believes the market is always rational and efficient Put aside the usual technology industry politics for a moment. Don't think Linux vs. Windows. Don't think server vs. mainframe. Don't think big vs. small. Don't think about IBM-The PC Company. Don't think about the IBM of the 50's through the 70's (boom times) or the IBM of the late 80's and early 90's (is it going under?). Think of the IBM of today - the largest provider of global technology products and services. In February the stock was at 120. Today it is around 75. The biggest news inside the company during that period was the departure of Louis Gerstner. It would be ridiculous to discount a company like IBM by almost 38% in four months over the departure of one person. It would also be somewhat of a slap in Sam Palmisano's face, too. Clearly, worldwide demand for technology has been impacted by the business cycle, the downside of the usual economic cycle and the uncertainty that world politics brings to any possible recovery. Still, 38% in four months translates to IBM dropping in value by $76 billion! This isn't Enron. This is IBM. It remains a company that is trusted by more members of the Global 2000 than any other provider of technology products. I'm not hyping IBM here. I'm simply pointing out that no matter how bad world conditions become, IBM stock on sale for $76 billion less than what it was at the beginning of the year might be quite a value. In August of 1993, when lots of people thought IBM might fail or be broken up, the stock traded down to $10 and change on a split-adjusted basis. Had you bought at that time and held to today's $75 range, you would have earned in excess of 25% per year on your investment - excluding dividends. That's after the recent 38% drop in the stock. That's after "the market" decides IBM is worth $76 billion less than it was worth 4 months ago. Does IBM appear to be in worse shape than in 1993? Certainly not? Does anyone really believe that Sun, HP, Dell and other global providers of technology products and know-how are going to destroy IBM? They didn't in 1993 at IBM's weakest point! IBM shares gain after analysts back plans. SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Shares of International Business Machines Corp. (IBM.N) bucked the fall endured by many technology stocks on Thursday after analysts endorsed its plan to exit the hard disk drive business and how to account for that. By Reuters. [New York Times: Technology] 8:45:00 AM     Comments[]

WIRELESS FOR THE REST OF US Not everyone lives in San Francisco. Those who don't aren't concentrated in New York. Until the wireless companies provide a differentiated, compelling value in services and handsets to the masses, the wireless "boom" will remain more like a "bust." I don't plan to surf the web on a phone keypad. In Memphis, I may not be able to truly surf the web on a handheld with reasonable economics for quite some time. Though many cell phones are dirt cheap, the latest phones (ostensibly ready) for the latest generation of wireless services cost quite a bit more. The monthly service is also above and beyond the calling plan. With a desire to combine cell calls, paging, messaging and PDA functionality, the buyer of a phone is faced with the march of Moore's Law. Ironically, consumers have become more accepting of its impact on their computers than they have on their cell phones. Further, more and more consumers are looking at their combined budget for cable or satellite television, home security fees, local phone lines, long distance, Internet access, web hosting and cell phone service. Plenty of people are ready for the company that can provide as many of these services as possible, on a family-oriented plan that permits a single bill and a single throat-to-choke when something goes wrong. Sprint Cuts Target for New Wireless Subscribers. OVERLAND PARK, (Reuters) - Long distance and wireless phone company Sprint Corp. (FON.N) on Thursday said subscriber growth in its wireless unit (PCS.N) would miss its target by up to 15 percent in part because of discounting by competitors. By Reuters. [New York Times: Technology] Please Avoid VoiceStream 7:57:04 AM     Comments[]

MANAGING SPECTRUM A Call to Drop Cell Phone Towers. Research firm SRI says it has a solution for the problem of dropped calls: Eliminate callers' dependency on cell towers. By Elisa Batista. [Wired News] 7:40:07 AM     Comments[]

CONSUMERS HAVE CARRIED THE ECONOMY Consumer spending plunged a surprising 0.9% in May, raising concerns that the nascent economic recovery may soon hit a wall. [Wall Street Journal] 7:32:26 AM     Comments[]

LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS, INC. has signed quite a few of the KPNQwest customers and used the company's ON TAP provisioning capabilities to turn up new service quickly. KPN has also turned to Level 3 for new service on Level 3's network. KPN & Qwest were the original backers of KPNQwest. Neither company wanted to continue to invest in KPNQwest. KPNQwest's Ebone to shut at 4.45pm today. Exhausted volunteers say time is running out [The Register] 7:17:48 AM     Comments[]

ON HOW MANY FRONTS Can we successfully fight the battles that come to us? A suicide attacker crashed a bomb-laden car into a guard post of the U.S. Consulate compound in Karachi, Pakistan, blowing a hole in the consulate's concrete wall and leaving eight people dead and at least 45 injured. [Wall Street Journal] 7:08:47 AM     Comments[]

Edward R. Murrow. "Just because your voice reaches halfway around the world doesn't mean you are wiser than when it reached only to the end of the bar." [Quotes of the Day] 7:04:02 AM     Comments[]

© Copyright 2002 Steve Pilgrim.