Juan Cole takes a look at the DNC's exclusion of Florida and Michigan delegates and the subsequent withdrawal of some Democratic candidates from the Michigan primary. He writes:
A specter haunts the Democratic Party, and it is the exclusion of Michigan and Florida delegates from the Democratic Convention. Both the Republican and the Democratic National Committees have been penalizing states that move their primaries up to January, as Michigan and Florida did. The DNC says it will only recognize the Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina primaries in January. Michigan and Florida won't be accepted. The dispute could affect the election in several ways. First, the Democrats have taken a pledge not to campaign in Michigan and Florida. The Republicans are also penalizing those states, but their candidates can campaign there. This difference may give the Republicans a leg up in Florida in particular.
Second, there is this bombshell:
Democratic candidates John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson and Joe Biden have withdrawn their names from the ballot to satisfy Iowa and New Hampshire, which were unhappy Michigan was challenging their leadoff status on the primary calendar. That leaves Hillary Rodham Clinton, Dennis Kucinich, Chris Dodd, Mike Gravel and "uncommitted," as the choices on the Democratic ballot in Michigan.
Well, the way I read it, that means Hillary takes Michigan. And, if Carl Levin is right, Michigan delegates may ultimately be seated at the convention despite what the DNC now says.
Daily Kos: "A couple weeks ago I looked at the possibility that the 2008 election could be a huge and transforming election, similar to the 1932 Democratic landslide that brought in FDR and led to the solidification of the New Deal electoral coalition of Southern White protestants, Northern ethnic Catholics, African-Americans, and union members that dominated American elections for decades. In 1930, as the Wall Street Crash led to the early days of the Great Depression, Democrats won big. Just like 2006, the 1930 election ended 12 years of Republican control in both chambers of Congress. Just like in 2006, the 1930 election was a massive repudiation of the Republican party and the performance of it's deeply unpopular President who had two years remaining in his term. So, could the trend continue, with the 2006 election being not an isolated peak, but the first of two massive Democratic landslides?"
From The Des Moines Register, "Obama, an Illinois senator, leads for the first time in the Register's poll as the choice of 28 percent of likely caucusgoers, up from 22 percent in October. Clinton, a New York senator, was the preferred candidate of 25 percent, down from 29 percent in the previous poll. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who led in the Register's May poll, held steady with 23 percent, in third place, but part of the three-way battle...New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson remained in fourth place as the choice of 9 percent and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden remained in fifth with 6 percent, both virtually unchanged from the October poll. All others had support from 2 percent or less. Presidential preferences include people leaning toward supporting a candidate. Seven percent said they were uncommitted or unsure about whom to support."
Captain's Quarters: "The Des Moines Register poll, the most reliable indicator for likely Iowa caucus-goers, shows major shifts in both parties for the presidential caucuses that will take place in five weeks. Iowa apparently has gone populist in both parties, with Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee surging to new leads in the state."
Oliver Willis: "Faced with an Iowa defection to Mike Huckabee's camp by the right-wing 'Christian' base, Mitt Romney is going to try and stop the bleeding with 'the speech' about mormonism. I have a sense that like other under-the-radar memes being pushed in this campaign, he won't be able to push back much - largely because that while Sen. Obama is not a Muslim, Romney is a Mormon and for better or worse the base is not exactly down with Joseph Smith and his visions."
"2008 pres"
6:26:45 AM 
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