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Saturday, December 29, 2007
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Andrew Sullivan: "But as societies change, conservatives have to adapt - at least if Burke is still regarded as a conservative. Given that our society now has a huge number of openly gay couples, many with children, and that the law has to respond to this social reality, the practical decision conservatives have to make is: what shall we do about this? My fear, expressed almost two decades ago now, was that the ad hoc responses - domestic partnership, civil unions and the like - were as practically unavoidable as they were subtly undermining of marriage. Give gays domestic partnerships and marriage-lite and straights will demand them as well. And so marriage becomes less special and less constructive an institution."
"2008 pres"
6:11:15 PM 
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Daily Kos: "But is it helpful to poll during the holidays? Mark Blumenthal asked that question of scores of pollsters, while Charles Franklin looks at pollster variation in Iowa, including a very nice discussion of who the ARG poll favors, as an illustrative example of what's called 'house effect'. Both stories should be read in full for greatest appreciation."
More from Blumenthal. He asks, "How accurate were the Iowa polls in 2004 and 2000?."
Click on the graphic to see the electoral map from the the Electoral Vote Predictor website in the days before the 2004 election. It was based on polling . As always, the election will depend on candidate get out the vote efforts.
Political Wire: "A new American Research Group poll in Iowa continues to be an outlier among the various public surveys that have been released this week. On Democratic side, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads with 31%, followed by John Edwards and Barack Obama at 24% each...On the Republican side, Mitt Romney leads with 32% support, followed by Mike Huckabee at 23%, and Sen. John McCain at 11%."
Political Wire: "'I've never seen anything like it. The get-out-the-vote efforts are going to be the best ever.' -- Iowa Gov. Chet Culver (D), quoted by the New York Times, on the extremely close Democratic presidential race in his state that 'could be determined by a swing of as few as 1,000 voters.'"
"2008 pres"
5:57:18 PM
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Andrew Sullivan: "The candidates on executive power: In some ways, this is one of the most important issues in this election after the astonishing power-grab by Bush and Cheney. The Boston Globe sent out a questionnaire on executive power to all the candidates. Unsurprisingly, Giuliani didn't respond, except with bland mush from Ted Olson. Only McCain and Paul among Republicans repudiated the notion that the president is above the law, can ignore treaties at will, and has the inherent power to seize, imprison and torture anyone on the planet he deems an "enemy combatant" without due process. But the most interesting responses were from Romney and Clinton. Clinton - as always - hedged."
We still think that this issue is one ripe for finding common interest amongst conservatives and liberals.
"2008 pres"
5:55:18 PM
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Two studies on the effects of oil and gas development are due out soon, according to The Glenwood Springs Post Independent "reg". From the article:
Jim Rada, the [Garfield] county's environmental health manager, said a preliminary draft of a study done by St. Mary's Saccomanno Research Institute and Mesa State College and that will analyze the oil and gas industry and other area health risks, is expected to be ready for peer review in the middle of the January. The goal of the study was to have a neutral, third party analyze the risks to help open a dialogue on health concerns. It should be available for the public sometime in February, Rada said. "The Saccomanno Research Institute has gone much deeper and broader, and is looking into health risks on a community-wide basis," Rada said...
An ongoing hydrogeologic study has been looking at the relationship between drilling activities and water resources. The results of that study is expected to be released at the beginning of next year as well, according to the Garfield County Oil and Gas Department.
"2008 pres"
7:25:05 AM
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From The Environmental News Network, "The Center for Biological Diversity filed a lawsuit in federal district court demanding that the U.S. Department of the Interior and one of its agencies, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, hand over public documents about former Interior Deputy Assistant Secretary Julie MacDonald. MacDonald abruptly resigned in April 2007 after the exposure of her unlawful interference with dozens of endangered species and habitat decisions by agency scientists, including at least one decision in which she stood to financially benefit. Ongoing legal investigations by the inspector general and General Accounting Office seek more information about MacDonald and whether the corruption goes beyond her office to higher levels."
"colorado water"
6:51:11 AM
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Josh Marshall: "Looking at these latest numbers from the LA Times poll, and the context of other polls over the last few weeks, I think you have to say that none of the three competitive campaigns on the Democratic side can go into the next two weeks with any real confidence or even relative certainty of the result. Even John Edwards, who in my own mind I'd pushed into a second tier, is by no means out of this. He's in third in Iowa. But only a statistically insignificant margin, 4 percentage points, separates him from the leader, Hillary Clinton. And what 2004 showed in spades is that an unexpected win in Iowa can rocket a candidate into the lead in New Hampshire. Possibly even more so this time since a mere five days separates the two contests. "
Bloomberg about the recent LA Times poll, "The poll finds a divide in support for Clinton and Obama among age groups, with about two out of five voters age 18 to 44 in both states saying they favor Obama and about the same margin of Democratic voters age 65 and above backing Clinton, though Edwards gets a similar margin of support from that group in Iowa."
Thanks to Andrew Sullivan for the link.
More from Bloomberg (via Yahoo! News): "The early Republican presidential race is a tale of voters' divisions over religion, with former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee riding support from evangelical Christians to a dominant Iowa lead, and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney well ahead in more secular New Hampshire. A Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey of Republican voters in the two states suggests that the only other candidate in contention is Arizona Senator John McCain, who runs second to Romney in New Hampshire. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who leads in some national polls, and former Senator Fred Thompson are far behind in the initial two states. The Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses will be followed five days later by the New Hampshire primary."
Captain's Quarters: "Mitt Romney and John McCain have released competing ads in New Hampshire today. Both take different approaches, and may show a little about how each candidate views the Granite State. While McCain's ad showcases himself with ebullience in 'The Choice Is Clear', Romney also focuses on McCain as the wrong choice in 'Future'...As so-called attack ads go, this seems rather mild. It focuses on McCain's record, doesn't call him names, and even offers that McCain is an 'honorable man'. There's nothing objectionable about it in that sense. Campaigns are all about making choices, as both men make clear. However, the decision to go after McCain with ten days left before the New Hampshire primary shows how close that race has become. If Romney still had a double-digit lead there, he never would utter the name McCain in any of his advertisements. He now needs to make the comparative case, and that means Romney has begun to sweat the results in the first two states on which he counted to sweep momentum behind him."
The Moderate Voice: "Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani has launched yet another ad linking himself to 911 (relating it to World War II) but now some political analysts and Giuliani supporters wonder whether his camp made a fatal political mistake that makes it seem as if his candidacy is shrinking with each passing day. The mistake: bowing out of both the Iowa AND the New Hampshire primary early vote competitions -- votes that provide lots of free air time and ink to candidates and cement the idea in voters' heads that the candidates in those races are running for President...Still, the poll trending, timing of the primaries and recent bad stories do not paint a portrait of a candidate on the political ascent."
Captain's Quarters: "The Los Angeles Times offers a poll for Iowa that shows some dramatic numbers in the Republican race. Mike Huckabee has a commanding lead over Mitt Romney, according to the Times/Bloomberg numbers, running fourteen points ahead. However, the sample leaves these results with debatable predictive value: 2,312 adults completed the survey in Iowa, including 2,145 registered voters ( margin of sampling error +/-2), 580 Democratic caucus voters (+/-5) 389 likely Democratic caucus voters (+/-5), 310 Republican caucus voters (+/-6) and 174 likely Republican caucus goers (+/-7). Only 174 likely Republican caucus goers got surveyed by the Times/Bloomberg poll. That hardly gives much credence to the results of this survey."
Political Wire: "Interesting finding from the latest national AP/Yahoo poll: 'Dig beneath the surface of the raucous Republican presidential race and you will find even deeper turmoil: Four in 10 GOP voters have switched candidates in the past month alone, and nearly two-thirds say they may change their minds again.' On the Democratic side, 'about one in five backs a different contender than in November, and nearly half say they still may settle on someone else.'"
Political Wire: "A new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll in New Hampshire finds Sen. Barack Obama leading likely primary voters with 32%, Sen. Hillary Clinton at 30%, and John Edwards at 20%. Among likely Republican primary voters, Mitt Romney leads with 34%, followed by Sen. John McCain at 20%, Rudy Giuliani at 17%, and Mike Huckabee at 12%. Complete survey results are available."
Political Wire: "A new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll in Iowa finds a three way statistical tie among likely caucus goers with Sen. Hillary Clinton at 31%, John Edwards at 25% and Sen. Barack Obama at 22%. Among likely Republican caucus goers, Mike Huckabee leads with 36%, followed by Mitt Romney at 28%, Fred Thompson at 10%, Sen. John McCain at 8%, and Rudy Giuliani at 8%."
"2008 pres"
6:08:33 AM
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From The Cherry Creek News, "As politicians and government officials grapple with trying to maintain the right balance between investigating potential terrorism and protecting civil liberties, the Bush administration, the U.S. Federal Government, Republicans and Democrats in Congress all receive low marks among all U.S. adults. However, the issue splits across party lines with many Republicans thinking that the President strikes the right balance and most Democrats and Independents disagreeing. Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton top the field as to which presidential candidates are trusted most among those in their respective political parties to balance these two goals."
"2008 pres"
6:02:26 AM
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© Copyright 2009 John Orr.
Last update: 3/15/09; 1:55:38 PM.
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