Frankly, I think those arguments are themselves stupid. Just because X happened in the past doesn't mean it will recur infinitely into the future. Each case has to be examined on its own merits.

Copying videos is a pain. I've never bothered to do it. It's more cost efficient (when the value of one's time is considered) to go to a video store. The main reason is that the store has a very large selection of videos right in one place with immediate access, whereas if you're limited to the collections of friends who are willing to share theirs to copy, and you consider the time it takes to figure out what they have that you want and make arrangements to get it to you, it all adds up. Same for copying off the air -- it takes time and effort to find out when something you want to copy is on, program the VCR to copy it, find a tape to record it on, etc. and then you still have to make the effort to fast-forward over the ads or sit through threm. So it worked out that the movie industry didn't crumble as some feared it would; in fact they made more money by selling videos.

But that certainly does not prove that there is an analogous way of dealing with digital copying of movies that enables the movie studios to make more money.

The fact is that sometimes industries do come to an end as circumstances change. The horseless carriage brought an end to blacksmithing. Maybe there were previous predictions that something would bring an end to that profession and it continued. But when the automobile came, there was no need for blacksmiths to shoe horses.

The movie industry may really be in some trouble if universal DRM isn't built into every computing device. I think there are other answers to saving the part of the music industry that deserves saving. But most movies really do cost a lot of money to make, and without universal DRM, there really may be less money there, so there may really be fewer movies with very high production values.

That would be sad, truly -- I love movies with great special effects, big crowd scenes, etc.

But universal DRM would probably be even worse.

And it may be that the main effect is that top actors can no longer command > $10 million per movie.

It is really only the video sales that are threatened, not theatrical sales. Going to the theater will remain, for the forseeable future, a unique experience which cannot be reproduced in most homes. It's hard to see how digital video is going to cut down theatrical sales much more than video recorders already have. So the movie industry should still have money -- probably significantly less than they do now -- but it does seem that the industry is unlikely to be in danger of completely collapsing unless there is very bad management. If management assumes the finances will not change, they are probably making a big mistake.

Management just has to accept that there is a big change in the offing.

The above piece has been edited to be more optimistic as the day has gone on.
12:28:06 PM