The opposition's hammering away and the continuing deterioration of the economy are eroding Mr. Chavez's popular backing. The latest, not-yet-released Datanalisis poll shows the president's support down to 32.3% in June from 34.4% in February and a high of 91.9% in February 1999, shortly after he took office. The new figures show that a short-term, postcoup 10% jump in popularity has evaporated, Mr. Leon said. The decline is directly linked to the Venezuelan economy's recent performance, he said.

The nation's gross domestic product is expected to contract by at least 4% this year after posting weak growth of 2.7% in 2001. Inflation should jump to over 30% in 2002 from 12.7% last year. The currency has dropped in value against the dollar by 67% so far this year, biting deeply into families' purchasing power in a country that is mainly dependent on imported goods.

Mr. Chavez has held on despite his sinking popularity and the weakening economy, analysts said, because the opposition hasn't yet come up with an agenda that goes beyond ousting the president. Nor has it been able to agree to a single, dynamic leader.

Said Miguel Octavio, an analyst with BBO Financial Services in Caracas: "We still don't see a catalyst" for change.

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