February 28, 2005

Change is coming to the Middle East, and faster than anyone would believe. The wide eyed activist that brings it is none other than that "simpleton" from Texas, George W. Bush. Regional election fever catches up with Emirates Academics and members of the appointed consultative council in the United Arab Emirates came out in favor of elections in the Persian Gulf state, arguing that it could not stay out of the regional trend toward elected bodies. When millions of Arabs in Palestine, Iraq and Saudi Arabia have gone to the polls, the UAE cannot continue to lag behind, Professor Abdul Khaleq Abdullah of the UAE University told the English-language daily Khaleej Times. Lebanon Druse leader Walid Jumblatt describes the election in Iraq as the Middle East's "The Berlin Wall". In Lebanon we can see the real 'arab street' and it is peacefully protesting in a place that only a couple of years ago, we know they would have been slaughtered by Syrian forces. Walid Jumblatt is no pro-american puppet. He is well known as anti american, anti semitic, and has in the past taken a very anti Iraq war stand. Perhaps he is only seeing the light, or perhaps he is just using the events to benefit himself, and his group. You can argue that Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak might be in the pocket of the american's, his country does get 2-3 billion dollars in direct US aid every year. However he has always opposed democracy in Egypt. Naturally this is for self preservation. The constitution in Egypt would have be changed to allow for multi-candidate presidential polls. The current President is the only one who can make that change, and there he was this weekend, suggesting that he would make the changes necessary changes to allow for democratic elections in Egypt. This is grassroots democracy at its finest. Joshua Micah Marshall wrote a very anti bush article in April 2003 (Washington Monthly) where he outlined the plan really well, and even managed to almost convince himself. He wrote: The United States establishes a reasonably democratic, pro-Western government in Iraq--assume it falls somewhere between Turkey and Jordan on the spectrum of democracy and the rule of law. Not perfect, representative democracy, certainly, but a system infinitely preferable to Saddam's. The example of a democratic Iraq will radically change the political dynamics of the Middle East. When Palestinians see average Iraqis beginning to enjoy real freedom and economic opportunity, they'll want the same themselves. With that happy prospect on one hand and implacable United States will on the other, they'll demand that the Palestinian Authority reform politically and negotiate with Israel. That in turn will lead to a real peace deal between the Israelis and Palestinians. A democratic Iraq will also hasten the fall of the fundamentalist Shi'a mullahs in Iran, whose citizens are gradually adopting anti-fanatic, pro-Western sympathies. A democratized Iran would create a string of democratic, pro-Western governments (Turkey, Iraq, and Iran) stretching across the historical heartland of Islam. Without a hostile Iraq towering over it, Jordan's pro-Western Hashemite monarchy would likely come into full bloom. Syria would be no more than a pale reminder of the bad old days. (If they made trouble, a U.S. invasion would take care of them, too.) And to the tiny Gulf emirates making hesitant steps toward democratization, the corrupt regimes of Saudi Arabia and Egypt would no longer look like examples of stability and strength in a benighted region, but holdouts against the democratic tide. Once the dust settles, we could decide whether to ignore them as harmless throwbacks to the bad old days or deal with them, too. We'd be in a much stronger position to do so since we'd no longer require their friendship to help us manage ugly regimes in Iraq, Iran, and Syria. The audacious nature of the neocons' plan makes it easy to criticize but strangely difficult to dismiss outright. Like a character in a bad made-for-TV thriller from the 1970s, you can hear yourself saying, "That plan's just crazy enough to work." Looking at the event of the last couple of months, it might just be happening. There of course is always the danger that anti american governments might still be elected, but it is well known that the current US (unlike it's predecessors) administration prefers a democratically elected government that hates them, even to a dictator that loves them. 7:50:45 PM

If anyone tries to convince you that the current events in Lebanon have nothing to do with what has happened in Iraq, please refer to this: Walid Jumblatt, the man at the center of this Lebanon's intifada has some ideas about Mideast change, too. "[T]his process of change has started because of the American invasion of Iraq," Jumblatt tells the WaPo's David Ignatius. "I was cynical about Iraq. But when I saw the Iraqi people voting three weeks ago, 8 million of them, it was the start of a new Arab world." Writes Ignatius, "Jumblatt says this spark of democratic revolt is spreading. 'The Syrian people, the Egyptian people, all say that something is changing. The Berlin Wall has fallen. We can see it.'"  12:59:42 PM

Entire Lebanese Government Resigns Fox News - Lebanese Prime Minister Omar Karami announced the resignation of his pro-Syrian government Monday, two weeks after the assassination of his predecessor, Rafik Hariri, triggered protests in the streets and calls for Syria to withdraw its thousands of troops. 11:23:27 AM

Regional election fever catches up with Emirates Academics and members of the appointed consultative council in the United Arab Emirates came out in favor of elections in the Persian Gulf state, arguing that it could not stay out of the regional trend toward elected bodies. When millions of Arabs in Palestine, Iraq and Saudi Arabia have gone to the polls, the UAE cannot continue to lag behind, Professor Abdul Khaleq Abdullah of the UAE University told the English-language daily Khaleej Times. Don't forget this weekend's announcement by Egypt professor... 9:07:27 AM