What is the Bird Flu threat currently building in southeast Asia — which this time the
threat has nothing to do with terrorism.
In the poultry farms of Vietnam and Thailand, in the slums of
Indonesia, along the migratory routes of wild fowl in China, a new
strain of bird flu is mutating and spreading. It's just a matter of
time, scientists say, before the strain — H5N1, the most virulent form
of influenza ever identified — will fully lodge itself within the human
population. When that happens, start looking for the Four Horsemen of
the Apocalyse — in particular, the one named Pestilence who's riding a
pale horse.
This is not your ordinary, off-the-shelf, garden variety flu strain.
It's a superbug. Currently, the virus is transmitted to humans only
through direct contact with birds. Up until now, there's been very
little to worry about unless you work with chickens in Thailand, or you
eat Vietnamese delicacies such as uncoagulated duck blood soup. But
scientists tell us that the virus is mutating, and it will soon become
a human-to-human contagion that's spread the old-fashioned way — by
nose, hand and mouth.
And here's what's really disturbing. The documented mortality rate
from the current oubreak in southeast Asia is around 55 percent. Even
if the bug is less virulent in its mutated form (which is likely), H5N1
could well be as contagious and deadly as smallpox.
The virus is poised to make its way around the world, killing
perhaps hundreds of millions in its wake. There are no human antibodies
for the virus, and there is no vaccine. The only drug known to be
effective in treating the symptoms is Tamiflu, which governments around
the world have been quietly and aggressively stockpiling for the past
two years. Governments, that is, except our own.
While France and Canada and Australia have been amassing doses of
Tamiflu, we've been fixated on preventing bioterrorism threats such as
anthrax. France has a population of 60 million, but will soon have 12
million doses of Tamiflu on hand. For our own population of nearly 300
million, we have a paltry 2.5 million doses. That's a 24 to 1 advantage
for the French.
Now that the problem that we can expect, millions of deaths and economic disruptions that could precipitate a
global depression, has been defined. Add on top of that disaster,
a rootin and tootin "turf battle" to deal with this world-class
epidemic. This was already an urgent concern with the Health
fields before the Homeland Security and FEMA disasters during the
Katrina and Rita hurricane fiascos.
The only Recovery successes seemed to be in "Preventing
Recovery", withholding assistance, and keeping needed supplies,
like ice, away from victims in the distressed areas.
"They don't have the infrastructure at Homeland Security, or the
technical expertise, to handle" a pandemic, said Dr. Georges Benjamin,
executive director of the American Public Health Association, who was
Maryland's health officer during the 2001 anthrax attacks.
But public health officials and health care experts reacted with dismay.
"This is news to me," said Dr. George Hardy Jr., executive director
of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, the
professional organization for state health departments. "Clearly
pandemics are public health issues. But certainly in today's climate, I
would expect many parts of gvernment — at the federal, state and local
level —would be involved."
The possibility that Homeland Security would lead a pandemic
response drew quick negative reaction from emergency physicians, who
expect their already overloaded departments to bear the worst burden in
a mass outbreak.
Public health insiders said Tuesday that the apparent tug of war
between the two federal agencies was likely to increase anxiety among
health professionals that the United States is not prepared for an
epidemic like the Spanish influenza of 1918, which killed an estimated
50 million people.
That anxiety --- reported by health professionals in several cities ---
has been exacerbated by the departure of senior scientists from the
Atlanta-based CDC and by the creation of a chief medical officer post
at Homeland Security.
Severe Risk of Pandemic: If you can read this you are not dead yet. That makes two of us.
Public health insiders said Tuesday that the apparent tug of war
between the two federal agencies was likely to increase anxiety among
health professionals that the United States is not prepared for an
epidemic like the Spanish influenza of 1918, which killed an estimated
50 million people.
