Using only the most pessimistic projections for future economic conditions, Bush and his privatization acolytes claim Social Security will be bankrupt. “Private accounts,” they tell us, will provide better returns.
These two statements are mutually exclusive.
If future long-run economic conditions are so poor that Social Security goes “bankrupt,” then the return on any form of private account investments will likely be negative or maybe flat.
If economic conditions are such that private accounts will grow to provide adequate retirement incomes for all Americans, then Social Security itself will be awash in new money and will not go bankrupt. It is not physically possible to have it both ways.
Selling Privatization....How long have conservatives been working to prepare the ground for Social Security privatization? For over two decades, reports Janet Hook in the LA Times today:
"It could be many years before the conditions are such that a radical reform of Social Security is possible," wrote Stuart Butler and Peter Germanis, Heritage Foundation analysts, in a 1983 article in the Cato Journal. "But then, as Lenin well knew, to be a successful revolutionary, one must also be patient and consistently plan for real reform."
The Cato article Hook is referring to isn't actually as sinister as the Lenin reference makes it sound (you can read it here), but it is fascinating. It basically lays out a long-term strategy for moving public opinion, and the conservative message machine has followed that strategy for 20 years through thick and thin:
"It started as the third rail of politics, but over a period of time conservatives kept at it until [their assumptions] began to sound like common sense," said George Lakoff, an expert in political communication at UC Berkeley.
Public opinion is the key to political change, and changing public opinion takes a long time. This piece is a wonderful little primer on how it's done. However SS privatization would seem like a Hard-Sell after the worst drop in the stock market in decades. My rabid GOP brother-in-law who retired in '00 saw his portfolio drop 60%. Another friend had to postpone his retirement.
And many Wall Street pundits today (i.e., John Mauldin, Richard Russell, just to name a few) are not bullish on the market at all in the near or mid term. Maybe a small bounce from here, but nothing sustainable.
I would think it would be pretty hard to argue about the benefits of privatization if the daily news about the market is "down, down, down." But that would only be true in a Reality-Based universe with a discriminating electorate.
The whole subject leaves me feeling depressed and afraid for the future.
50 years from now, hell, maybe 10 years from now, this country is going to be 6 rich monopolists and 300 million poor people competing like crazy to cut their lawns.
Good bye middle class - we hardly knew ye.
UPDATE:The GOP's social security playbook
Here it is (PDF). The GOP's 103-page playbook for destroying social security.
In addition to facts and figures they claim show social security in crisis, the playbook has GOP talking points on the issue, quotes from Democrats that supposedly show support for privatization, sample constituent letters, sample speeches for audiences over and under 50 years of age, and reports from several candidates who ran and won on privatization (suggesting that Republicans won't pay a political price for dismantling social security while adding $2 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years).
