Why should we worry? After all only a thousand or so cases and less than 100 deaths. I have posted this chart before. It shows how a system tips. If the infected hit a threshold around 5% on the bell curve, the rate of infection will accelerate on the non linear curve.This is why the Health authorities are sweating blood now.
Here is the point. If SARS gets to the threshold on the bell curve, it breaks out and the system tips. What does that mean for you and me? A 4% death rate doesn't sound like much but that's 40,000 deaths a million Say there are 5 million in the Greater Toronto Area. Breakout into the whole community would mean the maximum likelihood of 200,000 deaths. Beyond the loss of life, the real issue will be our own societal immune reaction. We will panic into paralysis.
We are already seeing the city begin to shut down for all business and all forms of meeting such as schools. Hong Kong is closed already. If we get breakout, we will not only have a tragedy in loss of life but a breakdown of life as we know it as we panic to protect ourselves. Intercity travel will be halted let alone international travel. Most of our manufacturing is now Just in Time - what risk there? Air Canada will not be the only airline to fold.
It's ironic, we are often killed by an overreaction of our own immune system. We risk being killed economically by our social immune system as we attempt to protect ourselves from SARS.
If we go down this path - what tips next? The stock market for sure. Then what? With the war and SARS we stand at the edge of a scale of social uncertainty not known in historic times.
SARS Round-up April 3 JST.
Some more SARS stuff.
- A web page dedicated to SARS
- CNet - April 2, 2003, 5:25 PM PT - Disease scare crashes Intel events - The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak has caused Intel to cancel two conferences in Asia and postpone a trip to the region by CEO Craig Barrett.
- AP - 4:32 AM EST Wednesday, Apr. 2, 2003 - WHO issues travel warning over SARS outbreak - Geneva — The United Nations health agency issued a rare travel warning Wednesday, advising against trips to Hong Kong and the Chinese province of Guangdong because of a deadly outbreak of a mystery disease.
- CNNfn April 2, 2003: 1:11 PM EST - Economist predicts world recession - Morgan Stanley economist cites SARS, war uncertainties as the main causes for pending recession.
- Time Online Edition - Wednesday, Apr. 02, 2003 - Making Sense of SARS - The outbreak in Asia has spread to at least 13 other countries. How to stay safe — and calm — in the face of this mystery disease
- BBC - Thursday, 3 April, 2003, 10:00 GMT 11:00 UK - Worldwide bug pandemic warning - Efforts to stop a deadly pneumonia may not prevent a global explosion in cases, a world-leading infectious disease expert has warned.
Earlier, I praised the WHO on their handling of SARS, but as the news starts to unfold, I guess it's not that simple. The tendency for the web to amplify fluctuation is probably hurting our ability to get a good sense of the actual risk of the situation. I think we should be focusing on what we should do to minimize risk rather than freaking out about it. On the other hand, it still appears we know so little about it. The question is whether the damage from freaking out exceeds the risk that SARS poses...
[Joi Ito's Web]
1:12:01 PM 
|
|
