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Thursday, December 23, 2004 |
(and Iran.)
Another indicator of the tough geopolitical times ahead.
[Sudan Tribune]: But the Chinese laborers are protected: They work under the vigilant
gaze of Sudanese government troops armed largely with Chinese-made
weapons -- a partnership of the world's fastest-growing oil consumer
with a pariah state accused of fostering genocide in its western Darfur
region....
The pressure to find new sources of oil has grown as China has swelled
into the world's second-largest consumer and as production at the
largest of its domestic fields is declining. According to government
statistics, China's imports have grown from about 6 percent of its oil
needs a decade ago to roughly one-third today, and are forecast to rise
to rise to 60 percent by 2020.
The US imports 53% percent of its oil today (48% net imports). DOE predicts 68%
in 2025, and strangely assumes prices at only $30-35 per barrel. What
if that price estimate is wrong. What if it's very wrong? What are the
potential impacts -- macro-economic, cultural and strategic
-- of growing import dependency, rising trade deficits, rising budget
deficits, (rising sea levels?), lost access to European markets
unwilling to accept lower quality (i.e., toxic) US goods? (I'll address
the last factor in a forthcoming article.) What are US business leaders
-- espcially those who speak of environmental commitments and social
responsbility -- willing to do -- both at the level ofcorporate
commitments, strategy and practice and
at the level of political engagement -- to protect both their companies
and the national economy within which they operate? (Another
forthcoming article.)
Oh, and by the way,
China in October signed a $70 billion oil deal with Iran, and the
evolving ties between those two countries could complicate U.S. efforts
to isolate Iran diplomatically or pressure it to give up its ambitions
for nuclear weapons.
[Thanks to John Robb for the sobering link.]
5:28:32 PM 
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[William Baue/SocialFunds.com]: Stuart Hart's Capitalism at the Crossroads perfectly complements University of Michigan Business Professor C. K. Prahalad's The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, perhaps even surpassing it in significance.
'Unlike greening, which works through
the existing supply chain to effect continuous improvement in the
current business system, 'beyond greening' strategies focus on emerging
technologies, new markets, and unconventional partners and
stakeholders,' writes Prof. Hart. 'Such strategies are thus disruptive
to current industry structure and raise the possibility of significant
repositioning, enabling new players to establish leading positions as
the process of creative destruction unfolds.'
The primary business strategy that
promises to arise from the ashes of creative destruction is the BOP
approach of serving the needs of the poor in ways that are culturally
appropriate, environmentally sustainable, and profitable, to paraphrase
Prof. Hart's definition. One key to leveraging the BOP market strategy
is for multinational corporations to 'become indigenous.'
I haven't read the book yet, but believe two things about the BOP opportunity:
- it is potential huge, and hugely significant;
- it will require profound changes -- in self-identity, more than in
ways of doing business -- perhaps far more profound than most
businesses will dare embrace.
But for those that do...
11:38:16 AM
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© Copyright 2006 Gil Friend.
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