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RaptorMagic

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(Done with Mirrors)

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 Tuesday, March 30, 2004
Letters

This first exchange began on RMO (rec.music.opera). In response to someone's apparent assertion that, following Bush's proposal for a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, all gay people should vote against him, I answered:

Perhaps, but I know two conservative gay men -- one on this newsgroup -- who have told me they expect to vote for Bush, albeit unenthusiastically.

That one was my friend REG. I wasn't sure if he is still supporting Bush, so I carefully worded my claim in the past tense. His responses came to me in private email, not on the newsgroup, but OK'd for publication here.

REG (March 27, a.m.)

If I am that one, you can put me in the non-Bush column now. I may not vote, and maybe I will have to vote for Kerry, but I can't vote for Bush based on his support of the Amendment. It's too long a discussion for this morning, but will follow through soon.

[Ralph Nader likes to pretend that he can get the vote of Republicans fed up with Bush. This seems to be based on the ludicrous idea that anyone who dislikes both Kerry and Bush must automatically like Nader. Yeah, right.]

REG (March 27, p.m.)

I just think the proposed amendment is not only regressive, but it's purely political, to energize the base. The issue for me is one of state law -- even though many of the rights and privileges are federal -- but it needs to be worked out in the first instance at the state level, like lots of "moral/social" issues. I think there are lots more important federal constitutional amendments I'd like to see, and that are consistent with a conservative bent (eg, I'd like to see an amendment that declares that as a federal constitutional level, unanimity isn't a requirement for a felony jury, and I'd like to see abortion made a state issue, for two). I think it's deeply cynical, and shows a lot of thrashing around by Bush. I think the Presidency is something you inevitably learn "on the job", and I don't think Bush shows that he has -- he did a great job initially post 9-11, but he keeps overplaying his hand, as if he can't see two steps ahead. I don't fault him too much for Iraq, although some of the information coming out makes it seem as if he was looking for an excuse to go in there, but having gotten us in there, he seems unable to do anything about getting us out. I agree with him, as you know, about disdain for the U.N., and you can certainly go it alone, and largely should, but you can't do it if you seem constantly lost and improvising.

[I don't think Bush is "unable" to get us out of Iraq. I don't think he wants to get out. I think the primary motive for going in was to establish a military presence there. It's going to be like Korea 50 years ago, or the Philippines 100 years ago.

[I'm with you (and Bush, I guess) about the U.N. I have no problem with the idea of going it alone, it's just that the it that I want us to go is limited to actual national defense, not planting our military in 40 nations across the globe in order to maintain American hegemony over the entire world.

[I also agree with you that both gay marriage and abortion would be best left to states. Notwithstanding the strong contrary opinion of the women in my life, I believe that abortion rights would be more firmly established today if only they had been fought for and won in the state legislatures rather than secured judicially. Cultural battles need to be won in the hearts and minds of the people. When a ruling is imposed from above, the people don't have to take the issue seriously because they aren't responsible for the decision anyway. If eternal vigilance is the price of democracy, judicial activism offers a discount on that price.

[Yes, that means that I believe Roe was wrongly decided. But now that it has 40 years of precedence, whether that means I think it should be reversed or if I say, like Justice Stewart, "Well, I would have ruled otherwise, but if that's the precedent let's go along with it," is something I'm still grappling with.

[Either way, I have no interest in writing a constitutional amendment to subvert Roe. If the privacy right really is a phony construct, better to have it reversed away, like the similar contract rights of the Lochner era, than stink up the constitution with a new amendment just for that. Off the top of my head, I can't think of any constitutional amendment that I'd favor.]

Mike Barno (March 25)

Mark, in a benzene entry you recently wrote: "I've seen names like Sandy Alderson and Bill James a lot, but I never really knew who they were."

I haven't been a baseball fan since about 1979, and I haven't been into statistical theory since about '83 ... yet I'm a Bill James fan, and I have been since spending five months living with James Wall and Matt Fleming in 1987. His quote that your reviewed book cited went to the heart of the matter. No Heinlein quote reinforced me more growing up than the "Notebooks of Lazarus Long" paragraph in Time Enough for Love about "Again and again and again -- what are the facts?" rather than acting based on conventional wisdom or religious dogma or celebrity endorsements or blind hope. Bill James took that approach in challenging the world's most bullshit-laden over-analyzed data set -- baseball stats past and present -- and wrote stuff that skeptics could appreciate. Tested theories against large sets of the facts, disproved many, found more detailed reason to understand and believe a few. I haven't read him in many years beyond an occasional paragraph quoted one place or another, but he's still one of the few people from whom I would read an article based just on its author. I think every field of human interest ought to have its own Bill James. I certainly wish the USA federal government had one.

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