Wisdom of Crowds
One of my new interests is in prediction markets. Here's an explanation. Those of you with business degrees know about these things, since they've been around since the late 80s. The basic premise is that crowds of people are better at predicting answers to questions than individuals. These "markets" consist of questions with people buying virtual stock (like the stock market). This stock predicts an outcome to a question, and the stock's value goes up or down depending on how people feel about this outcome. So, if more people feel that the outcome is true, then the true stock will be worth more. I am trying this out on the Newsfutures exchange. It has around 18,000 players, it is free, and it does not require you to use real money. If anyone is interested in playing, let me know, and I can create a group on the site. It could be fun. I find all of this interesting in relation to my research into how we know things. Here are a couple charts for questions that I am playing right now. Probability that the Atlanta Falcons will beat the New England Patriots in the upcoming preseason game.
(Weekly market) Probability that Sen. Hillary Clinton will be re-elected as Senator from NY.
(Market over the last month)
7:15:39 AM  permanent link Google It!
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