Differences [posted by Troy]
So, I've been asked to differentiate between Wikipedia and Prediction Markets. At first glance, it seems that they both represent "group" knowledge, and, yet, I am a fan of prediction markets and not so much of a fan of Wikipedia. Well, to be more accurate, I think that both of these have situations where they are useful and not so useful. But, here's the difference. Prediction markets work well when they draw from a large, diverse population that can offer representative input on a topic. They are very useful in predicting trends, opinion, and outcomes to many questions. They are generally better guessers than any individual can be. Prediction markets are statistical sources of infomration. Therefore, they reflect some of the strengths and weakenesses of statistics. They are not so good when they are asked to predict questions that require detailed knowledge, specialized knowledge, or complex calculations. Wikipedia is very useful in covering a range of topics. It is great in pointing directions for further investigation. However, it cannot be considered authoritative. (Note, I would not really consider Britannica to be overly authoritative, but it more accurate than Wikipedia, as studies have shown.) The purpose of the encyclopedia (and other reference sources) is to store and communicate information. There is a need for a solid process, an editor's eye, and some degree of dependability. Wikipedia has put some checks in place, but the reality is that this sort of tool will always have trouble reaching beyond the "person-on-the-street" sort of knowledge. It has two key problems: 1) it is an arena that can easily be dominated by one view or one voice. Objectivity (or at least even handedness) is not necessarily it's aim. 2) The reader has not idea as to what stage a particular entry is at in the writing process. Was the current entry just changed by Crazy-Neighbor Bob down the street? Is the current entry a complete coverage of the topic? There is no way to know. So, bottom line, prediction markets represent the shared (statistical) knowledge of a population. Wikipedia represents pieces of knowledge strung together by unknown individuals.
8:54:04 PM  permanent link Google It!
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