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 Monday, March 24, 2003
What we may have had here is a civilian who micromanaged the war plans and told the military chiefs how to run their war. Now, these guys at the Pentagon may be old fogies but you generally do not get to be an old soldier if you make stupid mistakes. Rumsfeld believed the war would be over in 2 days!! They believed all that psychops stuff about mass surrenders. We are now 5 days into this war and facing a fairly large pitched battle that will determine the course of the war. This from the article gives me chills:Intelligence officials say Rumsfeld, his deputy Paul Wolfowitz and other Pentagon civilians ignored much of the advice of the Central Intelligence Agency and the Defense Intelligence Agency in favor of reports from the Iraqi opposition and from Israeli sources that predicted an immediate uprising against Saddam once the Americans attacked. Wolfowitz is one of the architects of Rebuilding America's Defenses which details the need for American domination of Iraq. Robin Dorf, director of national security strategy at the U.S. Army War College, lists as one of the things that has gone wrong so far a 'mismatch between expectations and reality.' Rumsfeld wanted to show the military that civilians were in charge by micromanaging this war. Time will tell how right he is. 11:59:00 PM 
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One of the things I have been trying to figure out is why none of the bridges we needed to cross to get to Baghdad had been destroyed. Hussein must have known that we needed to come across them to get there. Did our decapitation strike prevent him from sending out an order to blow some of them up? My fear is with our stretched supply lines. Could he somehow blow a few of these up now? Could a suicide truck do the damage? It could strand our troops without an easy way to resupply them until the bridges were rebuilt. Right in front of a larger Republican Army force. While I do not think this could change the final outcome, it could cause some real problems. Delaying moves us into much worse weather. Another day that can be used to strengthen anti-American positions worldwide.
I am sure that the military knows this, that it is doing what it can to fortify these bridges and forestall this sort of strategy. It is an obvious tactic when there are long supply lines. I am sure that is why we are fighting so hard in Nasiriyah, home of several bridges over the Euphrates. But low tech approaches have shown themselves able to be very effective tactically. It would take time to rebuild a bridge. I'm starting to wish another heavy brigade was there. I kind of like overwhelming force. 11:40:43 PM
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My mother has been asking for an American version of Tim Collins' speech. We have eloquent speakers on this side of the pond. I have been disappointed that no one over here picked up on an American versions. Well, I found this letter. Not as good for a photo op as Collins but a nice little message to the troops anyway. I wish the media would spend some more time on this, rather than trying to fill empty space (since war has a lot of hurry up and wait between the periods of abject terror) with inane questions and idiotic responses. If I see another stupid computer generated simulation of a cruise missile being launched into Iraq, I will scream. 11:24:22 PM
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Speak of the devil. After spending some time tracking down the actual numbers and order of battle for this conflict, trying to add it all up to get an idea of what ground forces we have arrayed against Saddam, this article appears at the Washington Post for Tuesday. Because of the delay of the 4th Infantry, we have only 1 heavy division, when the original plans called for at least 2. One would attack from Kuwait and the other from Turkey. But Turkey's refusal required the 4th to be moved down to Kuwait. So, instead of two heavy divisions attacking Saddam from two different fronts, we now have only 1 attacking from the south.
The major point in this article is that the Army really wants another heavy division present. But Rumsfeld, and many others in the Pentagon, believe that fast and smart is a better approach. I talked about a war game they ran last year simulating this (of course they had to cheat in order to win). Many do not hold to the Army's wish for overwhelming force. In the 'Bush Given Iraq Invasion Plan' below, one expert was quoted, when discussing the scaled down plans that Rumsfeld wanted: The Marines liked the option and the timing, but didn't want to go against the Army, which is rapidly proving itself irrelevant to modern warfare. I think we are about to find out who is right. I pray that the decision of the Turks that forced the redeployment of the 4th Infantry Division does not have a major outcome on this war. 11:12:52 PM
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Very interesting to compare the plan, as it was really developed by Rumsfield. Franks wanted 250,000 troops from the beginning. Rumsfeld wanted a lot less. I wonder who the official was who said,Franks was asked to brief. The president doesn't have time to bother what with he doesn't want to hear. Great quote! I would have loved to be a fly on the wall at that meeting. Franks had first asked for 250,000 ground troops. Rumsfeld said no. So Franks came back with another plan. This plan had only 50,000 ground troops. I am sure that this was not the 'real' plan. We would not leak that but it does make an interesting comparison.
If I count properly we have about 75,000 ground troops now (counting Britain also) based on the groups already present. There are another 40,000 or so in transit (mostly III Corps)[Most of this information was gleaned from an hour or tow at Globalsecurity.]. The 4th Infantry Division may have to wait until April before its equipment makes it from the Mediterranean, through the Suez Canal to Kuwait. I wonder if we will wait for them.Being adaptable helps in these circumstances. 10:52:39 PM
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Now that we are in this war, I pray that it ends as soon as possible, with as little loss of life as can be achieved. Whether I believe that our action is terribly wrong or not does not matter as much right now as getting it over with quickly. Then we can really see if the damage can be repaired or not. 1:00:42 AM
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More reasons for loving the Internet. As I was trying to track down as much of the Lord Acton quote (see below) as possible, I read a lot about him. He had many more quotes deserving of being repeated.
- Every thing secret degenerates, even the administration of justice; nothing is safe that does not show how it can bear discussion and publicity.
- Machiavelli's teaching would hardly have stood the test of Parliamentary government, for public discussion demands at least the profession of good faith.
- By liberty I mean the assurance that every man shall be protected in doing what he believes to be his duty against the influences of authority and majorities, custom and opinion.
- The possession of unlimited power corrodes the conscience, hardens the heart, and confounds the understanding.
- Those who have more power are liable to sin more; no theorem in geometry is more certain than this.
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The fate of every democracy, of every government based on the sovereignty of the people, depends on the choices it makes between these opposite principles, absolute power on the one hand, and on the other the restraints of legality and the authority of tradition.
- The most certain test by which we judge whether a country is really free is the amount of security enjoyed by minorities.
12:32:45 AM
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Excellent! It looks like Bush stumbled into the right military strategy: decapitation strikes. The simple fact of the matter is that our technology -- 1) very percise munitions, 2) satellite recon, and 3) electronic surveillance -- can enable low cost, but highly effective, strikes against the leadership of Iraq (and any other rogue state). I had advocated this strategy back in 2001 on this weblog, but it looked like the administration had gone in the opposite direction towards a massive invasion. The delay we see in the roll-out of the war plan proves that we are shifting our strategy to decapitation. Also: Saddam may be dead.
Here is why these operations work:
- We can hit, with precision a variety of targets in real-time. Our intel is developed in real-time.
- The regimes we are targetting are extremely top heavy -- they typically rely on a single "maximimum" leader. Elimination of that leader could end the war quickly.
- There is no real ability of these nations to hit back with overwhelming force (this was a blind spot in our planning process generated by our conflict with the USSR. Decapitation strikes against the USSR would have made it more likely that the USSR would launch nukes, therefore we developed an aversion to using this strategy. That persisted until today. It is now a major part of the US strategy in Iraq. In fact, it is dominant strategy.).
[John Robb's Radio Weblog]
And the best thing about decapitation strikes is you don't have to go to the lil ole Congress and get a declaration of war. Since the President's policies now allow any President to kill terrorists, as defined by the Executive branch, or to preemptively act against anyone who threatens us, no matter how tangentally, I think that there are a lot of governments in the world who are very afraid. Oderint dum metuant.Let them hate as long as they fear. I hope not. Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Lord Acton said quite a few other things that we should remember. 'Liberty is not the power of doing what we like, but the right of being able to do what we ought.' 'The danger is not that a particular class is unfit to govern. Every class is unfit to govern.' 'Liberty is the prevention of control by others.' The more complete quote about power from Lord Acton, in a letter to Bishop Mandell Creighton discussing papal infallibility, is below and demonstrates that the same principles he was actually writing about still apply: I cannot accept your canon that we are to judge pope and king unlike other men, with a favourable presumption that they did no wrong. If there is any presumption it is the other way, against holders of power, increasing as the power increases. Historic responsibility has to make up for the want of legal responsibility. Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men. Let us make sure we do not substitute President for pope. The temptation is all too human. 12:20:12 AM
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