Coyote Gulch

 



















































































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  Friday, October 29, 2004



Podcasting

Dave Winer: "Time to go for a walk and listen to Woz talk about the early days of hacking and Apple."
6:52:24 PM     



2004 Presidential Election

From the Rocky Mountain News, "Al Gore will headline a rally at Denver's Paramount Theater at 6:30 p.m. Saturday and Dick Cheney will hit Colorado Springs on Monday."

On Monday the person behind Electoral-vote.com will let us know the identity behind the website. I can't wait.

Electoral-vote.com: "Another bumper crop of polls, 36 of them in 17 states to be exact. And as usual, the bottom line is that it is still a statistical tie. In the Zogby tracking polls, Bush has taken a 2% lead in Michigan, although in Rasmussen's tracking poll, Kerry has a 2% lead. Research 2000 give Kerry a 4% lead there. Since Zogby's poll is 4 days ending yesterday, Rasmussen's poll is 7 days ending yesterday, and Research 2000's poll is 3 days ending Wednesday, Zogby has the most recent middle date and goes in the spreadsheet."

"According to Zogby, Pennsylvania is now a tie at 47% each. Strategic Vision (R) also says it is a tie, but Quinnipiac puts Kerry 1% ahead and Rasmussen puts Kerry 3% ahead. Remember that Zogby saying PA is a tie means the pollster is predicting that there is a 95% chance that the true score for each candidate falls in the range 43% to 51%, no more and no less. All the battleground states are statistical ties. A couple of percent lead means nothing. According to Zogby, Kerry has increased his lead in Ohio to 3%, but that also means nothing. Turnout will determine who wins."

"Zogby now puts Kerry ahead in Iowa, but Strategic Vision (R) and ARG have it the other way slightly. Again, a statistical tie."

"Many readers have noticed that because Zogby gets his numbers out the door faster than anyone, all the battleground states contain just Zogby numbers. While I have faith in Zogby, I also have faith in ARG, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, and some (but not all) of the others. During the weekend I will produce yet more software :-( to make a map averaging recent polls, in addition to keeping the most-recent-poll-wins map."

"I have decided to come out of the closet before the election. Be sure to come back Monday. Some of you will be quite surprised, I can assure you."

Andrew Sullivan: "Kerry in Florida."

Lawrence Lessig: "It is no surprise to readers of this blog that I would endorse John Kerry for President."

Doc Searls is pointing to this website Internet Veterans for Truth. They have a lot of pro-Kerry video.
7:12:33 AM     



Denver November 2004 Election

Today is the last day for early voting. Vote early and vote often.

Daniel Brogan: "Earlier in the week, we wrote about Fair Vote Colorado, a site that lets you check your voter registration status. As one of our own learned, that's advice that's worth repeating. Shortly after that item was posted, Patrick Doyle, 5280's new research editor, who recently moved to Denver from Philadelphia, discovered that he was one of the thousands of new voters whose registrations were never recorded."

Ken Salazar leads Peter Coors 48% too 42% according to a recent Rocky Mountain News poll [October 29, 2004, "Salazar pulls ahead of Coors as the finish line approaches"]. From the article, "Those numbers, produced in polling Monday through Wednesday by Public Opinion Strategies, show a reversal from that firm's survey conducted Oct. 13 though 15, which gave Coors a 45-40 edge. A mid-September poll on the race by the same pollster had shown Salazar with a lead of 53 to 42 percent. The most recent Public Opinion Strategies poll, which sampled 500 likely voters, had a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points."

Ken Salazar and Peter Coors are tied at 46% according to a recent Denver Post poll [October 29, 2004, "Tight sprint to Senate"]. From the article, "Seven percent of those responding to the poll - which was conducted Monday through Wednesday - were undecided, and 1 percent said they would vote for somebody else for the U.S. Senate."

A recent Denver Post poll on Referendum 4A shows it passing 50% to 39% with 11% undecided [October 29, 2004, "FasTracks transit measure stays ahead in poll"]. From the article, "Supporters of RTD's FasTracks ballot measure are leading, with 50 percent of those polled saying they will vote for the measure. The support in a new Denver Post poll, a drop from an earlier survey, shows metro Denver voters favor paying higher sales taxes to fund the 12-year, $4.7 billion transit expansion. The survey showed 39 percent are against the plan and 11 percent are undecided, according to Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. The poll surveyed 340 likely voters in the Denver area from Monday through Wednesday this week. The margin of error is 5.4 percentage points."

How are the amendments doing? Amendment 36 is losing, Amendment 37 is barely winning, Amendment 35 is winning, and Amendment 34 is losing, , according to the Denver Post [October 29, 2004, "Electoral College change losing"]. Amendment 36 would change the way Colorado's electoral votes are allocated. Amendment 37 would mandate that Colorado utilities use renewable energy for 20% of electrical production. Amendment 34 focuses on construction company liability while Amendment 35 establishes a new tax on cigarettes. From the article, "Just 31 percent of voters said they favored it, 55 percent opposed it, and 14 percent were undecided. In a Post poll earlier this month, the measure was opposed 44 percent to 35 percent, with 21 percent undecided. Partisan differences on the initiative were particularly striking. Democrats favored it 45 percent to 37 percent, with 18 percent undecided; Republicans opposed it 76 percent to 15 percent, with 9 percent undecided. The new poll suggests the nail-biter among Colorado ballot questions may be its renewable-energy initiative. Statewide, it was favored 45 percent to 39 percent, but with 16 percent of voters still undecided. A poll earlier this month found a much wider margin of support, 54 percent to 26 percent...This week's poll showed Colorado voters favoring a cigarette tax increase by the same margin: 58 percent to 35 percent...Amendment 34, a proposal to lift some limits on how much in damages homeowners can collect from builders, lost the slim lead it had in a recent Post poll and is now losing badly with 64 percent against, 22 percent for and 14 percent undecided."

The Rocky also polled on the Amendments [October 29, 2004, "Both sides solid on FasTracks"]. From the article, "Sixty-two percent of metro Denver voters said they would vote yes on Referendum 4A, the sales tax increase to fund the FasTracks rapid-transit expansion. That's the same percentage measured in the poll a month ago...Amendment 35, which would raise the tax on a pack of cigarettes from 20 cents to 84 cents, is holding strong at 59 percent in favor and 39 percent against. This has slipped slightly since September, but Weigel said it should hold since 50 percent of poll respondents said they are 'definitely' voting yes. Amendment 37 would require utilities to produce some of their energy from renewable sources such as the sun or wind. About 20 percent of voters switched from support to opposition since last month, the poll indicates. But the yes vote still outweighs the no vote, 56 percent to 39 percent. The poll also reported soaring opposition to Amendment 34, which would overturn restrictions on builder liability for defects. The poll showed 63 percent opposed and 27 percent in favor, a big change from last month, when supporters were slightly ahead, 44 percent to 41 percent. Opposition also has risen to the proposal to divvy up Colorado's electoral votes proportionally."

Here's an article about voter registration statistics from the Denver Post [October 29, 2004, "Unaffiliated voters at a peak"]. From the article, "Unaffiliated voters increased by more than 27,000 in the past few weeks, with the total climbing to 1,028,886 statewide, records show, making it the largest unaffiliated electorate in state history. Final pre-election numbers of Colorado registered voters released Thursday put the total at 3,114,566...Secretary of State Donetta Davidson announced Thursday that Colorado's all-time-high number of voters represents an increase of 230,618 registered voters over the number for the 2000 general election."

Update: Walter in Denver: "Libertarian Voting Guide."
6:29:41 AM     



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