2004 Presidential Election
 Here's an article from USA Today about the recent USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll results. The poll is showing President Bush leading Senator Kerry 49% to 48% nationally.
Ruy Teixeira guest blogging on Talking Points Memo writes, "Of course, there's bound to be confusion about this, since Gallup and its clients tend to highlight the likely voter (LV) rather than RV results, which, in this case, actually show Bush ahead by a point (49-48) . And then some media outlets tend to report the Kerry-Bush-Nader results, rather than the Kerry-Bush results, which further clouds the issue. Let me reproduce, as a public service, my thinking about why you are well-advised, at this stage of the race, to pay more attention to RV than LV results, especially when both are reported. As for why it is preferable to look at Kerry-Bush matchup results, rather than Kerry-Bush-Nader results, I will refer you to a recent analysis I did on the issue."
Talking Points is also linking a recent Fox News poll in .pdf. They say, "The Fox poll has Bush up by 6 points (48-42) among registered voters (RVs). As I discussed in my previous post, Gallup has Kerry up by 4 (49-45) in the identical Kerry-Bush RV matchup. Kind of different! And check this out. Fox has Bush ahead by 20 points in the solid red states (Gallup had Bush ahead by 8), Kerry ahead by only 3 (!) in the solid blue states (Gallup: Kerry by 14) and Kerry ahead by an identical 3 point margin in purple states (Gallup: Kerry by 9). Huh?!? Kerry ahead by only 3 in the solid blue states--and up by no more there than in the battleground states?"
Blogs for Bush: "Real Clear Politics has the run-down on the lastest (sic) polling trends. On the whole, things have swung to President Bush's favor. In addition to these swings in the national polling, I've noted some interesting poll results in the 'battleground' States - namely that President Bush is gaining support in MI (Bush 42/Kerry 40), FL (Bush 48/Kerry 38), PA (Bush 46/Kerry41), and OH (Bush 45/Kerry 41). Of course for each of these States there is also polling showing advantages for Kerry - but taking one thing with another, I believe we are seeing a general trend towards the President."
According to Blogs for Bush the first conservative 527 committee is going to run a TV ad starting Thursday.
7:17:51 AM 
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