However, despite the fact that it's worth a look, IMHO it is completely missing the point. The fact is that we are looking at a world in which file transfers of very large files, including music and even movie files, will be "frictionless" in the sense of taking zero effort to accomplish. It won't be that there will be little overhead; there will be no overhead from the user's point of view.

That is, unless there are legal controls of some sort in place. For instance, friction is added to the extent that it is possible to prosecute companies and/or individuals who promote the free exchange of copyrighted files. Or, alternatively, extreme DRM could be mandated for every digital music and movie device, including PC's.

Thus, some friction exists today, due to the proven ability of the recording industry to shut down certain companies such as Napster. And a larger factor is that the technology isn't really frictionless yet; most people operate over slow dial-ups rather than the future high-bandwidth pipes we'll all have, and the technology is awkward due to its peer-to-peer nature. (Although it must be noted that that awkwardness only exists because legalities force file sharing to be by P2P means.)

So looking at the small effects that the download phenomenon has today is totally wrong-headed. The debate is over what legal means, if any, should be used to discourage the free trading of copyrighted files. The only realistic way to guage how important those legal controls are is to imagine a world in which a) there are no such controls, and b) everyone had extremely high-bandwidth pipes. That is, anyone could get whatever music or movie they want anytime they want at the click of a mouse without paying anything for it.

If you really imagine such a world, in my opinion it is totally obvious that the recording industry (and movie industry) would not have the means to make nearly as much money as they do today, and so would drastically shrink in size. While there would be ways of making money that would enable such companies to survive, the process of shrinkage that would get them to that kind of equilibrium would be so drastic and chaotic that many of them would go out of business (or get acquired for a fraction of their current value) anyway.
11:03:12 AM