Saturday, October 18, 2003

Is George W. Bush Electable? Maybe - If Enough People Vote For Him. The myth of 'electability'. I knew Al Gore was sunk when Patrick Moynihan, in the course of endorsing Bill Bradley for president in the primaries leading up to 2000, pronounced Al Gore "unelectable." I didn't agree that this was necessarily the case, but I did feel that this curse would become a self-fulfilling prophesy. In OpinionJournal, Harold Bloom writes that Wesley Clark is electable and that the other Democratic candidates are not. Dean is frequently called unelectable, or his electability is called into question. All of this is a way of talking about a gut sense and intangibles such as charisma and whether you turn off more people than you turn on. Some people may or may not be electable, but I don't trust random commentators to discern this quality as if it's a kind of aura that only they can see. Frankly, I don't even trust my own gut on this matter. I thought Jerry Brown was going to take the country by storm in 1992, especially when I saw my conservative father taking him seriously (while also seriously pondering another clearly unelectable candidate, Pat Buchanan). If enough people vote together, anyone is electable. [Edgewise] 6:14:24 PM

Smashing, Baby! PUMPKINS HINT AT ECONOMIC UPTICK Marty Larkin uses pumpkins to tell the future. LEADING PUMPKINOMIC INDICATORS SUGGEST BETTER FOURTH QUARTER, HALLOWEEN EXPERT SAYS CHICAGO (Oct. 18, 2003) -- Some economic forecasters measure the rise and fall of the economy with housing starts; others rely on pork-belly futures to predict Wall Street's fortunes. The Rock & Roll Chef conjures up predictions with an "orange crystal ball": pumpkins. Marty Larkin (aka The Rock & Roll Chef), who has been a professional pumpkin carver and Halloween expert for nearly a decade, says that orders for his HalloweenSpot.com custom-crafted pumpkins are up significantly over last season. With tongue firmly in cheek, Larkin says, "What we call our Orange Index is about 17 percent ahead of 2002." HalloweenSpot.com's custom pumpkins are typically purchased by sales executives and corporations for use as reception-area decorations or as seasonal gifts. Larkin has carved for Playboy, Pixar, Kraft, KingWorld and Harpo Productions (to name only a few), and ships his orange artwork all over the country. He sees the surge in orders as a good economic indicator. He says his company begins receiving inquiries about pumpkins as soon as January, when he takes "early harvest" orders (before October 10) at a 10 percent discount. Orders are continuing at a brisk pace, he reports. "Normally, orders don't really hit until the second or third week of October," Larkin says. "Considering how weak pumpkin sales were the past two years, this year's Pumpkinomic indicator is a pleasant surprise. We're hoping the trend continues." Larkin, a marketing entrepreneur who focuses year-round on the entertainment and food industries, believes the corporate world's interest in Halloween gifts mirrors the holiday's increasing popularity nationwide. "Halloween is second only to Christmas in terms of consumer spending," he says. "And, for my money, it's a lot more fun." Bruce Winston, president of Chicago-based GiRGiT, has benefited from HalloweenSpot.com's pumpkins for several years. Winston's firm, which he describes as "The Idea Consultancy," specializes in business-to-business relationship marketing. "Our expertise is in new business development and client retention," he says. GiRGiT's client roster includes real estate companies, banks, high-tech industries, and non-profit organizations - and Winston firmly believes in "Pumpkin Power" as a way to stand out from the crowd. "It seems like every business sends gifts and cards during the Christmas season, and so it's very easy to get lost in the shuffle," he says. "I mean, how many 'Seasons Greetings' cards and 10-pound tubs of stale caramel corn can one office handle?" Winston much prefers Halloween as his gifting season. When a client receives a custom-carved pumpkin, usually accompanied by a goodie bag of customized Halloween toys and goodies, "you definitely stand out from the crowd," he says. Another reason for the increase in pumpkin-giving may be a new awareness of the Hispanic market, Larkin says. "I'd say the largest number of new clients have been those targeting individuals and business likely to appreciate Halloween's similarities to Dia de los Muertos (Day of the Dead)." Day of the Dead shares many of Halloween's traditions and symbols, Larkin notes. As for cost, Larkin says his medium-size carved pumpkins start at $100. Each is hand-carved, and simply cannot be automated or mass-produced; the more intricate the images or logo and art preparation, the more the cost. Because the pumpkin skin is scored, rather than cut entirely through, Larkin's pumpkins stay fresh for three to six weeks. Clients may also hollow out the pumpkin themselves for a lighted jack o'lantern, which lasts three to five days. Larkin, who also created "The Rock & Roll Chef's Halloween Carving Kit" for X-Acto, says pumpkins take from 30 to 90 minutes to carve, depending upon the complexity of the image. Asked whether his Orange Index can shed any light on the end-of-the-year holiday shopping season, Larkin shrugs his shoulders. "Although I'd love to do them, there's no demand for pumpkins at Christmas," he says. 'The 13 Days of Halloween'? Now that's another story." For more information, contact Leigh Hanlon at (312) 593-4036 or visit HalloweenSpot.com. [HANLONVISION.COM] 12:25:51 PM

Further Notes on the Bush Financial Death Spiral Krugman - The Sweet Spot. Krugman - The Sweet Spot By PAUL KRUGMAN, Published: October 17, 2003 What we have here is a form of looting." So says George Akerlof, a Nobel laureate in economics, of the Bush administration's budget policies ? and he's right. With startling speed, we've blown right through the usual concerns about budget deficits ? about their effects on interest rates and economic growth ? and into a range where the very solvency of the federal government is at stake. Almost every expert not on the administration's payroll now sees budget deficits equal to about a quarter of government spending for the next decade, and getting worse after that. <snip> One answer is to explain that the administration's tax cuts are, in a fundamental sense, phony, because the government is simply borrowing to make up for the loss of revenue. In 2004, the typical family will pay about $700 less in taxes than it would have without the Bush tax cuts ? but meanwhile, the government will run up about $1,500 in debt on that family's behalf. George W. Bush is like a man who tells you that he's bought you a fancy new TV set for Christmas, but neglects to tell you that he charged it to your credit card, and that while he was at it he also used the card to buy some stuff for himself. Eventually, the bill will come due ? and it will be your problem, not his. These middle-class tax cuts were designed to create a "sweet spot" that would allow the administration to point to "typical" families that received big tax cuts. If a middle-income family had two or more children 17 or younger, and an income just high enough to take full advantage of the provisions, it did get a significant tax cut. And such families played a big role in selling the overall package. Will someone be able to find the political sweet spot, the combination of fiscal responsibility and electoral smarts that brings the looting to an end? The future of the nation depends on the answer.  [Via New York Times]  [Earl Bockenfeld's Radio Weblog] 2:45:31 AM

OL on iTunes and Indie Labels Update on iTunes. In June I spoke with somebody at Apple regarding making our new CD nouveaumatic available on iTunes before we would release it in September. I thought getting the new album on iTunes would be pretty easy, especially since the iTunes store already sells many of my albums and more are to follow since I agreed to make the music from my Higher Octave CDs available as well. I was sent an application form for independent record labels, which I filled out and returned more than three months ago. I have emailed a couple of contacts at Apple several times and have yet to find out about the status of the application. Needless to say I am disappointed by the way iTunes is handling this matter and I have no idea when, if ever nouveaumatic will be available on iTunes. [Ottmar Liebert] 2:35:53 AM

Miles Ahead Miles Davis poster. Somebody in Dallas is putting up posters of faces without any words printed. I saw several different versions and recognized this one as being of Miles Davis. [Ottmar Liebert] 2:14:39 AM