Sunday, June 22, 2003

"You're worse off relying on misleading information than on not having any information at all. If you give a pilot an altimeter that is sometimes defective he will crash the plane. Give him nothing and he will look out the window. Technology is only safe if it is flawless." "Another bias is what I call the size bias. If you have twenty thousand traders in the market, sure enough you'll have someone who's been up every day for the past few years and will show you a beautiful P&L. If you put enough monkeys on typewriters, one of the monkeys will write the Iliad in ancient Greek. But would you bet any money that he's going to write the Odyssey next? You know that because of the sheer size of the sample, you're likely to find a lucky monkey once in a while. But the same applies to traders. " - Nassim Nicholas Taleb, from an old interview with Deriviatives Strategy 10:26:57 PM    comment []

How outsiders and new statistical analyses are changing....   [ Eugene Volokh , 10:20 AM ] How outsiders and new statistical analyses are changing baseball: Matt Welch reports. I don't know much about this field, so I can't vouch for the accuracy or completeness of the account; but it's a fascinating read, and a reminder that (1) businesses that close their eyes to new information leave open huge opportunities for new competitors and that (2) these days, new information is easier than ever to gather, correlate, and disseminate. [The Volokh Conspiracy] This is a fantastic article which shows how data can overcome biases, traditional beliefs, and irrational behavior.  Not only does it show how this is happening in baseball, but it also touches on the change issues associated with the introduction of any new innovation into a static environment.   10:14:48 PM    comment []

The blog "Amazon World" is dedicated to "Highlighting some of the more interesting user reviews found on amazon.com."  It's now part of my daily reading.  Enjoy.   3:53:15 PM    comment []