War, Windows and Linux
As the war gets nastier and increasing accidents of war start to make the headlines I can't help but think of the pictures I have seen and the comments I have heard. Today's Mercury-News said, "world sympathy for American interests is at its lowest." I remember seeing pictures of how the foreign press is reporting the war. In more than one third world country, we are being portrayed the new Nazi's. In another they are putting machine gun toting soldiers in front of the local McDonalds. Anti-Americanism leads to possible violent attacks on the symbols of American economic strength (at worst) and at least, a possible "don't buy American" wave in many countries. McDonalds is seen as one symbol of American economic dominance (that is why the guards.) Microsoft may be seen as another.
Another factor: Microsoft's more aggressive license enforcing mechanism. It is easy to understand why Microsoft wants to crimp down on pirated use of its OS. If I wrote some really cool piece of software I'd want to get paid for it too (unless I was Linus Torvolds) and likely wouldn't cotton to folks stealing it. But, especially in the worlds emerging markets, the price of a full license of Windows current wonder OS is a heck of a lot of money!
If the customer doesn't buy Windows OS, because the customer simply can't pay for it (yet?), and the customer rips it off, at least the customer is still using Windows. There is longterm value in that for Microsoft. As users in these emerging markets (hopefully) prosper they eventually do become paying customers (again, hopefully.)
Enter Linux. What does Linux have going for it for a customer from an emerging market customer perspective? It's legally free (at least initially), it's hardware friendly (it can run on a wider range of older computers) and it's not invented in America. For foreign country governments and businesses needing support, there are even non-American companies (like SuSE) that sell and support Linux.
High prices of forced Microsoft purchasing and a wave of anti-American sentiment could make using Linux (yes, even on the desktop) a lot more attractive in the world's emerging markets. I wonder; once accustomed to Linux, and free software, will the world's emerging market buyers ever look back?
In my opinion; if they don't, and if anti-Americanism swells, that could be bad for business, bad for Microsoft and yes, even bad for you, me and Apple.
9:09:02 AM
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