Friday, August 05, 2005

Tropical Depression Nine As expected, Tropical Depression Nine formed yesterday afternoon.  Unexpectedly, this morning, the low level circulation split from the rest of the system and took off to the northwest.  (The depression had been moving west-northwest).  A stunning reversal of fortune for the storm.  The path it had been on was along warm Sea Surface Temperatures and development into a tropical storm was considered to be a guarantee with hurricane status to follow.  Now, the chances of marginal for it to make tropical storm as the SSTs are much cooler along the new path.  Also, as I mentioned yesterday, (assuming the westerly course) there was a fair chance of the storm affecting the U.S. mainland.  Now, it has next to no chance, it is already too far north.  It will travel in between the two high pressure centers over the Atlantic and remain well out to sea.  This is reflected in the forecast track, which changed dramatically this morning. The latest Tropical Depression Nine discussion says it right when it says "How little we know about the genesis of tropical cyclones". 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:28:12 AM   trackback []