Saturday, July 30, 2005



Tropics Watch 0730



The system that was investigated by the recon plane yesterday has done nothing overnight to warrant another investigation today.  The 'center' of it is south of the Dominican Republic and thunderstorms associated with it extend east and north back to 60° West (north of the Lesser Antilles).  Right now upper-air conditions to the north and west of the system are highly unfavorable for development, so there won't much concern over this system during the next couple of days. 

A tropical wave that is of concern at the moment is further east; about 300-500 miles east of the southern Windward Islands.  A slight improvement in appearance and somewhat favorable conditions for development make it a candidate for investigation tomorrow if it continues to become better organized.

A couple of nights ago I read a paper on tropical cyclone development that stated that about 30% of the systems that get tagged as having potential for development in 36 hours fail to develop.   The way this season has been going, it is easy to forget that there actually are tropical waves that will look good but won't develop into anything more.

2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:48:21 AM   trackback []