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Sunday, July 10, 2005 |
| Need some time to recharge myself mentally. I'll be back tomorrow morning/afternoon. For the latest on Dennis, refer to the National Hurricane Center To see how Dennis affected/is affecting/will afect your area check our local National Weather Service Office's web page. Dennis won't be a tropical system tracked by the NHC for much longer, though it will continue be a heavy rainmaker. When NHC drops coverage of Dennis, it will be picked up by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []7:00:36 PM  trackback []
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| ... A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOWNHC has already penciled in a recon flight for this system for Tuesday afternoon; an indication that they are indeed seriously considering the possibility of the tropical wave spinning up into something bigger in the near future. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:46:03 PM trackback []
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| At 4 PM CDT the center of hurricane Dennis was 20 miles north of Pensacola Florida and headed just west of due north at 21 mph. Winds are 105 mph and pressure is 950 millibars 28.05". Hurricane force winds extend 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds reach 205 miles out. Forecast track. Heavy rain can be expected along Dennis path. Hurricane force winds may persist up to 100 to 150 miles inland over Alabama. Tornado watches remain up for the Gulf coast and adjacent counties in Florida, Alabama, and Georgia through midnight. I have seen no news reports online yet from the areas that would have been hit the hardest. I have seen reports on TV that sections of US 98 was washed out in the vicinity of Fort Walton Beach. Also, the Pensacola News Journal's photo gallery has photos from Navarre Beach this morning where significant flooding had already ocurred. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:31:55 PM trackback []
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| Go to cnn.com and check out the video titled 'Wrath of Dennis'. CNN reporter Dennis Cooper was reporting from the Ramada Inn just west of Escambia Bay and south of I-10. He was in the western part of the eye of the storm and was nearly taken out by the hotel sign when the winds picked back up 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []4:33:04 PM trackback []
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 Squinting at the radar image, it looks like the eye made landfall squarely in Gulf Shores National Seashore, a fine place to make landfall as that area is completely undeveloped. Northeast quadrant is over Navarre Beach and Navarre, the southwest part of Eglin Air Force Base and further north, Milton. ; a developed area, but certainly not so much as Pensacola or Fort Walton Beach. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []3:40:03 PM trackback []
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| At 3PM EDT the center of Hurricane Dennis was 20 miles east-southeast of Pensacola Florida and moving 'due north' at 18 mph. Winds are down to 120 mph, which makes Dennis a category three hurricane. Pressure is up to 943 millibars. Hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend up to 230 miles away. Dennis weakend a bit more than expected; probably because of the shallow coastal waters and the cooler water temperatures. The pure northward jog I described in the previous post has been deviated from slightly, with a bit of a north-northwestward ocurring at the moment. This looks to put landfall between Navarre Beach and Gulf Islands National Seashore. That is a low-lying barrier island: See this Post-Ivan aerial picture of Navarre Beach. The Pensacola News Journal and the Northwest Florida Daily News (Fort Walton) are both going to have photo galleries and other storm damage related information as it comes in. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []3:15:16 PM trackback []
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| At about 1245 CDT Dennis started a northward jog that appears to take Pensacola out of danger from the northeastern quadrant; on this track they would get winds of 75-90 miles per hour. Current track puts point of landfall at Navarre Beach and the strongest part of the northeast quadrant over the western half of Eglin Air Force Base with its periphery reaching out to Fort Walton Beach or so. I am not experienced enough to accurately gauge where the worst storm surge is going to be, but it does concern me how Dennis is positioned relative to Choctawhatchee Bay (the mouth of which splits Fort Walton Beach and Destin). It is certainly not good that Dennis is to the west of it, but it may be just a bit too far west to really throw a large surge up the bay. We shall see... 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []2:13:18 PM trackback []
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| At 12 PM CDT the center of Hurricane Dennis was 55 miles south-southeast of Pensacola Florida and moving to the north-northeast at 18 miles per hour. Winds have nudged downwards to 135 mph and pressure has risen to 937 millibars. Hurricane force winds extend 40 miles to the center and tropical storm force winds reach out 230 miles. Latest observation from Naval Air Station Pensacola, (which is west of Gulf Breeze and southwest of downtown Pensacola) showed 36 mile per hour winds with gusts of 51 mph. Those will be sure to increase rapidly in the near term. While Dennis continues on a worst case path for Pensacola there are a couple of points for optimism. One is that you have to belive that most of the trees that would have been uprooted in this storm were taken out by Ivan; similarly the weakest of the permanent structures in the earlier are no longer there. Secondly, with the hurricane moving as quickly as it is now, the area will not be subject to several hours of hurricane force winds, but rather something on the order of three hours. The downside of course, is that the temporary structures and areas under construction/repair, (which are fairly substantial in number) will certainly be wrecked. Watching the Eglin radar loop , it is painfully clear how much of a close run thing this is going to be for downtown Pensacola. It really is going to come down to the wobbles in the final hour... The entire panhandle of Florida as well as adjacent counties in Georgia and Alabama are under a tornado watch. Earlier this morning NWS Tampa had cause to issue a tornado warning. Given the past history with this hurricane, it would not be surprising if we saw some more tornado warnings today across the panhandle. LATER: A quick note if you are watching Eglin Radar and aren't well initiated with the northwest Florida: The + marked Pensacola is the location of the Airport, which is north/northeast of the downtown. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []1:11:22 PM trackback []
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| At 11 AM CDT the center of Dennis was about 65 miles southeast of Pensacola Florida and appears to be closing at a faster rate of speed, something like 20 mph now. In the past half hour, the recon plane found an extrapolated pressure of 937 millibars, indicative of some slight weakening. Like D-Day yelling "Ramming speed!" as he plowed into the homecoming parade review stand, Dennis is accelerating towards Escambia county. With the exception of one slight north wobble that did not persist, he is right on the NHC track, which has it clipping Pensacola Beach/Gulf Breeze and proceeding over Pensacola. As I said earlier, the amount of damage we see from this is going to depend on exactly where it comes in at. Whoever gets hit will get hit hard, but of course, the total amount of damage will be lower if Dennis does not hit a heavily built up area (like the area immediately west of Pensacola Beach). 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []12:20:31 PM trackback []
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| At 10 AM CDT the center of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dennis was at 29.4 North 86.7 west, 80 miles south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida and moving to the north-northwest at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 140 mph and pressure is 930 millibars (27.46"). Hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend 230 miles. Data from the hurricane hunter indicates that intensification has ceased. There may be a slight change before landfall but Dennis will almost certainly come in on the high end of category three or the low end of category four. Because of the northward jog Dennis took earlier, the forecast track is shifted east and has Pensacola Beach as the point of landfall. The amount of damage we will se from Dennis will depend on that last unpredictable wobble it takes. If it ends on a northwest wobble into Pensacola Beach and just west of downtown Pensacola then things are going to be phenomenally ugly. A northward wobble puts the eye just west of Pensacola Beach then things aren't going to be as bad (there is nowhere near as many structures to damage, because the area immediately east of Pensacola Beach is lightly developed; also there is a National Seashore to the east that is completely undeveloped. To the North is the western part of Eglin Air Force Base; most of it is empty land. The buildings are on the eastern side of it, IIRC). Conditions are going downhill fast on the panhandle. Panama City is reporting less than one mile of visibility in heavy rain. Those conditions will spread westward as Dennis barrels in. For more information specific to your area consult the web page of your local National Weather Service office, I have provided links for the offices in the hurricane warning area in previous posts... just scroll down a little and you will see them along with links to local media that is providing information on evacuation. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:25:36 AM trackback []
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| AT 9 AM CDT the center of extremely dangerous hurricane Dennis was at 28.7 North 86.4 West, 125 miles southwest of Pensacola, Florida. Over the past few hours movement has been to the north at 16 mph; a north-northwestward movement is expected to resume. Maximum sustained winds are 145 mph and pressure is down to 930 millibars (27.46 inches) It is looking more and more like a Florida landfall every hour. Even if Dennis were to return to its overall north-northwest (corrected; once again sleep deprivation bit me) course, the landfall would still happen just east of the Alabama line. If that slight drop in pressure (noted at 7:43 EDT) holds, Dennis would be in a tie for sixth for highest strength at U.S. landfall. Again, it is currently stronger than any storms were last year when they hit the U.S. and is also stronger than Hugo of 1989. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []9:37:30 AM trackback []
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| At 6 AM CDT the center of Hurricane Dennis was at 28.2 North 86.2 West, 165 miles south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida. Movement is to the north-northwest at 15 miles per hour; this course will bring Dennis to land later today. Winds are 145 miles per hour and pressure is 931 millibars. Hurricane force winds extend up to 40 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend 230 miles A hurricane hunter observation at 5 CDT found pressure of 931 millibars. This should mean that Dennis has just about stopped deepening and strengthening. Lower Sea Surface Temperatures on its current course could cause slight weakening before landfall (although, at this time, the National Hurricane Center is not forecasting any weakening to occur). Dennis has added even more of a northerly component to what until a few hours ago was a northwest course. Extrapolation of the present heading brings Dennis in near the Alabma/Florida state line. That is subject to change, of course, as only the slightest westward wobble would put landfall in Alabama. For information specific to your area check your local National Weather Service Office: National Weather Service Office New Orleans National Weather Service Office Mobile National Weather Service Office Tallahassee For information on evacuations, consult local media: NBC New Orleans NBC Jackson/Pascagoula NBC Pensacola/Mobile NBC Panama City If you are near or on the coast and wondering 'Should I stay or should I go?', go, now. Another catnap will do me nicely. Up bedtides at 8:30 EDT... OH AND ONE MORE THING If Dennis maintains his current pressure he will fall into a tie for 7th strongest storm to hit the U.S. ever; the only storm stronger than him to hit the U.S. in the past 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []7:16:43 AM trackback []
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| At 4 AM CDT the center of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dennis was at 27.8 North 86.1 West, movement is to the north-northwest at 15 mph. Winds are 145 mph and pressure is 932 millibars. Hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds reach out 230 miles from the center. I've held this update for a whie now, waiting for the forecaster's discussion to be posted. As it still hasn't been posted, I am going to carry on. Official forecast track is shifted ever so slightly to the west. Intensity forecast is for 145 mph at landfall. The most notable thing from this advisory may be the change in heading from northwest to north-northwest. If that persists, then Dennis will steer just east of the mouth of Mobile Bay. While Mobile would still get hit hard, the damage would be less than if Dennis were to come in just west of Mobile Bay; that would throw the storm surge up the bay, flooding Mobile and simultaneously subject Mobile to the very strongest winds of the storm. On satellite, Dennis still has the appearance of a strengthening storm, mostly because of the shrinking eye. However, when you check the Sea Surface Temperature analysis you see that Dennis has just about run out of that eddy of warm water. Also, if he continues to deviate north of a straight northwest course, the temperatures drop another degree or two. This should be enough to prevent further strengthening and may be able to cause some slight weakening, even. Unfortunately, the most recent shear analysis indicates that shear to the immediate north of Dennis has dropped off some, with the southern-most significant shear over land. It does not appear that shear will be a much of a factor in the intensity of Dennis before landfall. I am going to take a catnap before the next advisory comes out. For the latest information refer to the National Hurricane Center and your local National Weather Service Office: National Weather Service Office New Orleans National Weather Service Office Mobile National Weather Service Office Tallahassee 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:45:08 AM trackback []
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| That is the most recent report from the hurricane hunter. Pressure fall rate may finally be flattening, but it is still look like it is greater than 1 millibar per hour. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []4:39:37 AM trackback []
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| Dug through the archives looking for a precedent for the pressure falls that Dennis has experienced in the Gulf of Mexico. From 2 PM to 2 AM the pressure fell from 962 millibars to 935 millibars, a 27 millibar drop over 12 hours. According to the data on Unisisys' page Hurricane Frederic of 1979 went from 980 millibars to 952 in a twelve hour span. So what is eerie about that? Hurricane Frederic made landfall at Dauphin Island Alabama, which is at the mouth of Mobile bay and just very slightly west of the NHC's forecast landfall point. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []4:10:26 AM trackback []
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| At 2 AM CDT the center of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dennis was at 27.4 North 85.9 West, 195 miles south of Panama City, Florida. Maximum sustained winds are up to 145 mph and minimum central pressure is down to 934 millibars. Hurricane Dennis Advisory Number 23B (National Hurricane Center)
Once again, Dennis has mocked the NHC intensity forecast.Based on this and how Dennis ran up to 145 quicker than I had expected, I will state that Dennis has a reasonable shot at 150 mph winds at the next advisory. I do not however, believe he will be sustain them after that. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []3:33:05 AM trackback []
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| At 1 AM EDT the center of dangerous Hurricane Dennis was at 27.0 North 85.6 West, 235 miles south of Panama City, Florida and moving northwest at 14 mph with a turn to the north-northwest expected in the next 24 hours. Winds are up to 135 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure is down to 937 millibars (27.67"). The pressure for the observation I cited below was 940 millibars, so the pressure fall rate has increased for the moment, so this is probably the beginning of what hopefully is the last round of quick intensification. NHC may be 5 mph too low on their maximum intensity forecast for Dennis, but we shall see. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []1:19:21 AM trackback []
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© Copyright
2005
Charles Fenwick
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Last update: 8/2/2005; 2:00:37 PM .
Last update: 8/2/2005; 2:00:37 PM .
