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Monday, July 11, 2005 |
...EMILY BECOMES THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON... Organization and appearance on satellite has improved significantly in the past few hours, hence the upgrade to Tropical Storm status. Because the center ended up being defined further north than where NHC was previously placing it, the forecast track is moved northwards. NHC's models are in exceptionally close agreement with each other and bring Emily on a track that is similar to the official forecast. Conditions are favorable for development and are expected to become moreso after Wednesday. Intensity forecast currently brings Emily to hurricane strenth on Wednesday night and has it as a category two hurricane when it passes by/over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Of course, if Emily does not interact with land, it will be stronger than currently forecast by the end of the five day period. It will be interesting to see if this newly well-defined center makes it into the global forecast models their runs this evening or if it takes one more run for their tracks to come together in something that resembles the exceptional consensus of the NHC's models. The more northerly formation of the center definitely increases the chances of Emily affecting the U.S. within the next seven days. The strong ridge of high pressure that spared the west coast of Florida from Dennis may guide Emily directly to South Florida. But it is a bit soon to try to gauge the possibilities and advise preparations for that area. In the near term, the concern is definitely for Puerto Rico as the forecast track puts the island squarely in Emily's northeast quadrant. But even in that more near term case, the storm is far enough away that a very slight deviation in heading changes the situation rather significantly. With the forecast track volatile due to the relative unestablished nature of the storm, it is watch and wait for most everyone with the possible exception those in the Windward Islands for whom a visity by Emily is more certain (but still not a guarantee). 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:12:57 PM  trackback []
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| ...Tropical Storm Emily. NHC's 00Z forecast models were initialized with a 35 knot storm. That is an indication that the National Hurricane Center will announce theformation of Tropical Storm Emily with their 11 PM advisory package. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []9:08:26 PM trackback []
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| Hog On Ice has a fine post in which he offers his thoughts on hurricane readiness. I was going to throw in a short comment, but since it got longish, I'll post it on my blog instead. In Tallahasse, my school year and sometime summer home, the locals have a fetish for their 'canopy roads', i.e. roads where trees completely overhang the roads. As such, the trees overhang the powerlines as well; even in areas like my apartment, which is just south-west of FSU, where there aren't canopy roads, trees overhang the powerlines. Even though Tallahssee didn't get hurricane force winds at all last season, three of the four storms brought power outages, mostly because of the idiotic practice of letting trees overhang the powerlines. Heck, Nick reported power outages in Tallahassee yesterday; according to the observations from Tallahasse airport there weren't even sustained tropical storm force winds; merely occasional gusts were that strong ! God help the city if a hurricane ever comes in between St Marks and Apalachicola on a northerly trajectory; it wouldn't even need to be a major hurricane to make a royal mess of things. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []7:51:44 PM trackback []
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| A well-written editorial from the Northwest Florida Daily News : A sentiment often heard along the Gulf
Coast is that tropical weather - summer showers, tropical storms,
hurricanes - is the price we pay for living in paradise.
On Sunday, we were reminded how high that price can be. For a week that seemed like a month, we had watched Hurricane Dennis as it grazed Jamaica, raked Cuba and headed into the all-to-inviting Gulf of Mexico. When it made landfall, it came ashore in some places like a 120-mph freight train. Trees fell and fences toppled in southern Santa Rosa County. Winds peeled off part of a motel's roof in Crestview. U.S. highway 98 on Okaloosa Island was, for the second time in two years, buckled and broken. Well, we've been through this before, haven't we? The only real surprises were in the details: Wind speed, a shift in the storm's movement this way or that, and the relative rarity of a major hurricane in July. Indeed, the fact that we've been through this before meant that most of us were out of harm's way when Dennis arrived. Evacuations had been ordered early and heeded well. There wa no frantic, last minuted flight that jammed highways, as happened before Hurricane Opal in '95. It also meant that emergency crews - police, firefighters, search-and-rescue teams, the Red Corss, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, utility workers from throughout Florida and out of state- were poised to move in immediately and help with recovery efforts. They got plenty of practice during last year's hurricane season. And it meant that area residents will hone the neighborly skills they developed after Hurricane Ivan just 10 months ago. We'll all pitch in to saw apart downed tress, cover scalped roofs and pick up pieces of homes and businesses. And find food to eat, water to drink, and ways to stay cool in parts of our towns that lost power. And we'll cope. After all, coping with cruel weather is one of the prices we pay for living in paradise. Our prayers go out to all who suffered losses, whose property flooded or whose homes were damaged, in the passage of Hurricane Dennis. May their road to recovery be wide open and easy to follow. As for those who suffered less but are witnessing the misery of others, they too, have reason to pray. On July 10, 2005, they found another opportunity among the countless opportunities we encounter every day but seldom acknowledge, to be thankful for solid earth beneath their feet and roofs over their heads. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []7:13:24 PM trackback []
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| The National Hurricane Center indicated yesterday afternoon that the formation of Tropical Depression Five was imminent; six hours later it happened. At 5 PM EDT the very poorly defined center of Tropical Depression Five was at 10.6 North 46.0 West, 1030 miles east of the windward islands and moving to the west at 14 mph. Wind is 35 mph and pressure is 1008 millibars (29.77") The depression is poorly organized so it is very difficult to place a center. Satellite Analysis Branch is estimating 35 knots winds while the Tropical Forecasting Branch is estimating 30; becuase of the system's poor appearance at this time, the forecaster is keeping its classification as a tropical depression for the time being. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one. Conditions are not favorable for strengthening at the moment, but are expected to improve over the next two days. The forecaster notes that one particular model (GFDL) brings the system into a major hurricane after it enters the Carribean. The earliest a fifth tropical storm has ever formed in the Atlantic Basin is July 24. No question exists whether that record will be broken; the only question is exactly when that will happen. Because of the uncertainty that exists over what the precise center of TD5 is, there is not much point in talking about what tracks the models are forecasting for it. You can not put a high amount of confidence in the forecast of a model when you do not have a similar amount of confidence in what the center of the storm because the intialization (i.e. where the model places the storm before it starts forecasting) plays a huge role in the outcome of the forecast. Any kind of error in initialization is sure to foul up the forecast increasingly as the forecast period increases. With that caveat, I will attest to the NHC's remark that there is a huge spread. This storm will certainly be of concern to people with interests in the Windward Islands and points immediately west of there. At this time one cannot gauge the potential for affecting the southeastern United States; it is a matter of watching and waiting. LATER: Realized that I was looking at the wrong low when I commented on the GFS. This would be a hard thing to do (if not impossible) in a normal season. But already, it is clear this is no normal season; it looks like this year is going to be like 1995, which featured a seemingly endless line storms forming from tropical waves coming from the Cape Verde Islands. The low that I mistook for TD5 is mentioned in the evening Tropical Weather Outlook: A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:39:09 PM trackback []
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© Copyright
2005
Charles Fenwick
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Last update: 8/2/2005; 2:00:37 PM .
Last update: 8/2/2005; 2:00:37 PM .
