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Thursday, July 21, 2005 |
| At 11 PM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was at 26.1 North 76.3 West, 100 miles northeast of Nassau Bahamas. Movement is to the northwest at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph and minimum central pressure is estimated to be 1009 millibars (29.80") The last report from the reconnaisance plane suggested surface winds in the vicinity of 50 mph. However, as the tropical storm does not look that impressive, the intensity is kept as is for the moment. There are two separate lines of forecast being offered by the models. One suggests that a trough passing through the northeast will reach far enough to scoop up Franklin and take him to sea. The other line of forecast is that the trough doesn't reach far enough and that Fraklin gets 'trapped' and turned back to the west. The official track forecast is a compromise between these two ideas. The intensification forecast for Franklin is not as rosy for him as previously. Shear and cooler Sea Surface Temperatures conspire against him. However, if the second track scenario were to play out then things would be favorable. The North American coastline could use the break suggested by this forecast. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:39:50 PM  trackback []
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| At 8 PM EDT the center of newly formed Tropical Storm Franklin was at 25.8 North 76.0 West, .Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph and minimum central pressure is estimated to be 1009 millibars (29.80"). Intensity forecast is adjusted to account for it being a tropical storm now. So, it is officially official now. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []8:25:32 PM trackback []
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| At 5 PM EDT the center of Tropical Depression Six was at 25.3 North 75.4 West, 125 miles east of northwestern Bahamas. Movement is to the west-northwest at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph and minimum central pressure is estimated to be 1009 millibars. Estimate of initial motion is 300 degrees (wes-northwest) at 11 knots. The forecast models are in agreement in the short term (<48 hours), but then disagree after. The forecast track is a turn to the north in 24 hours, followed by a turn to the east, which would yield a loop well east of the Florida coast. Sea Surface Temperatures are warm and upper level winds seem favorable, therefore this could become a hurricane in 48-72 hours. The forecaster notes the flight level winds that I posted about earlier and acknowldeges that they would normally support tropical storm force winds. However, he would like to see more convection (thunderstorm activity) before upgrading the system to a tropical storm. Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number One
Needless to say, I am surprised with the decision to not make it a Tropical Storm. As the first paragraph of the discussion notes, the low amount of convective activity is typical for this time of day. I certainly cannot claim a long comprehensive knowledge of storm upgrade decisions, however, with that caveat out there, this is the first time I've seen them have the winds to support a tropical storm (along with the low pressure center) and pass on upgrading to a tropical storm . I would expect to see an explosion in convection this evening (as part of the daily cycle) and an upgrade to tropical storm status thereafter. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []6:06:03 PM trackback []
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| As noted by Weatherblog, a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement was put out by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon for the system over the Bahamas. So far the recon plane has found max flight level winds of 36 knots, which suggests surface winds of about 35 mph (just below Tropical Storm strength). Hitherto, they have not sampled the area where the strongest winds would seem to be at, so that probably isn't the maximum for the entire system. Updates to follow in this space... ..plane is working its way along the eastern side of the storm at the moment... the shifts in wind direction reported by the plane indicate that there is a center of low pressure (the bare requirement for a Tropical Depression)... now the only question is how strong those winds are (which is the difference between a Tropical Depression and a Tropical Storm)... ...40 knot flight level winds... equates to 37 mph surface, and still, they haven't sampled the area that should have the highest winds... I expect a Tropical Storm advisory shortly... ...although, the latest Tropical Disturbance Statement indicates a Tropical Depression Advisory package is coming out now... this apparently based on the low level center... ...at 2107Z a max flight level wind of 42 knots...equates to 38 mph at the surface... tropical storm force... ... and at 2114Z a max flight level wind of 48 knots (10 sec average; 30 second average was 47 knots)...43 mph ...definitely a tropical storm... 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []4:53:59 PM trackback []
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| - Emily claimed the life of a woman yesterday, El Universal reports. In San Carlos, a man and his wife attempted to cross a flooded interesction in their car. The man managed to escape, but his wife was swept away by the current. - Another article from El Universal "The bad weather destroyed everything" (my translation of the original Spanish). The town is Francisco Villa, a municpality of San Fernando. (San Fernando, somehwat inland was in the direct path of Emily). Residents were surprised by the ferocious wind and abundant rain. Many houses lost their (sheet) rooves. People there were thankful that no one was injured by the storm. - A story from a Springfield Missouri newspaper: Springfield students ride out Emily. 20 middle school students were at Cozumel as part of a summer program and rode out the storm on the island. - Cozumel message board has some post-Emily pictures. - Wunderground blog InCozumel also has some pictures. - Novedades (Cancun newspaper) reports that electricity is at 93% restoration level in Cancun, near 50% in Cozumel, and at 60% in Playa del Carmen, and is completely restored in Isla Mujeres. - Finally, a local report on Dennis. Tallahasee Democrat reports that 80% of the sand dunes at St George Island St Park were washed out by Dennis and that parts of the main road in the park were destroyed along with boardwalks, pavillions, and restrooms. I have been to this beach many times, and it is the beach of choice for many FSU students (though, for the majority, the stretch of beach west of the state park is the preferred area). The article notes that more than 550 homes and businesses were damaged or wrecked in Franklin and Wakulla counties by the storm surge from Dennis. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []1:54:47 PM trackback []
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| Careful followers of National Hurricane Center advisories remember that on the night Dennis made landfall, the NHC started issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Five, (which of course became Tropical Storm then Hurricane Emily). Will we similarly see a new package of advisories at 5 PM for a new system today? Perhaps. This from the NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook: A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []1:17:15 PM trackback []
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| ...for the lack of updates yesterday. In the morning, when I had planned on covering the landfall, my sister's puppy escaped and disappeared. We undertook an extensive search of the area and after being unable to find her, we printed and distributed signs. Fortunately, soon thereafter, someone called and informed us that they had the puppy and that she was well. Nevertheless, it occupied the entire morning and the better part of the afternoon. As I had other things planned for the afternoon, I never got the time to look at the storm, much less write about it. But to briefly summarize what happened with Emily: She went ashore early yesterday morning on a fairly isolated stretch of Mexican coastline as a category three hurricane. She moved west after landfall and weakened fairly rapidly. The National Hurricane Center issued their last advisory on Emily at 11 AM EDT. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []1:04:59 PM trackback []
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© Copyright
2005
Charles Fenwick
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Last update: 8/2/2005; 2:00:43 PM .
Last update: 8/2/2005; 2:00:43 PM .
