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Friday, July 22, 2005 |
| At 5 PM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was near 27.8 North 76.7 West, 100 miles north-northeast of Great Albacore Island. Movement is to the north near 9 mph with a turn to the northeast expected on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph and minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars (29.74"). Dry air has gotten to the center of Franklin, weakening convection. The stronger winds observed by the recon plane were probably downdrafts from convection that has since disappeared, so the intensity estimate is held as is. Recon and radar position estimates indicate that Emily has been moving north since about 10 AM EDT. Vast majority of the models take Emily to the north thorugh the next day and then to the northeast after that. Upper air data indicates that the trough that is expected to pick up Franklin is proceeding to the southeast and should be at the coast tomorrow. Some of the global models essentially dismantle Franklin after about 48 hours or so, however the current forecast does not reflect that. Shear from the disturbance over the Yucatan Peninsula has returned and inhibited Franklin's ability to intensify. The upper-air conditions are expected to improve slightly and slowly and the intensity forecast continues to only bring Franklin up to 60 knots (69 mph). It looks more and more like Franklin's sole clame to fame will be that it was the earliest sixth tropical storm. A welcome respite from storms like Dennis and Emily. And also storms like the one that the name Franklin replaced: Floyd. Hurricane Floyd of 1999 heavily flooded parts of northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. Oddly enough, one of the cities affected by Floyd was my mother's hometown: Franklin, Virginia. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:19:18 PM  trackback []
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| Yet another system is being scrutinized closely. From this morning's Tropical Weather Outlook A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE There may be enough observation stations on the Yucatan Peninsula to pin down the existance of a low, but it would seem more likely that such a determination will have to wait until the Hurricane Hunters investigate the system early tomorrow afternoon. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []2:12:55 PM trackback []
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| At 11 AM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was at 26.8 North 77.0 West, 30 miles north-northeast of Great Abaco Island. Franklin has been meandering to the north-northwest or northwest at 2 mph. A gradual turn to the north with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph and minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars (29.74"). The overall appearance of Franklin has improved this morning. The wind intensity was set by observations, but the flight meteorlogist aboard the recon plane visually estimated surface winds of 55-60 mph, so 50 mph may be on the low side. Determining the overall motion of Franklin has been troublesome. The recon plane's observations indicate that it's been moving eastward in some fashion, while satellite observations suggest it has been drifting to the west. Emily appears to be stuck on the south side of a high pressure ridge. A trough currently over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys is expected to weaken the ridge, thereby allowing Franklin to move north and then to the northeast (out to sea). This scenario is endorsed by the global forecast models. The limited area models continue to suggest that Franklin won't go out to sea and instead will make his way to Florida eventually. Shear has lessened, which should allow for modest intensification. The intensity forecast currently maxes Franklin out at about 70 mph, but the forecaster notes that if Franklin does not turn to sea, then that forecast will probably be too low. LATER: The global forecast models continue to suggest that the trough will be strong enough to clear a path for Franklin to head to sea. If the scenario offered by them plays out, the most that anyone on the east coast will see of him is heavy surf in the Outer Banks area early next week. It is doubtful to me that the limited area models, which are designed for the tropics, can handle a mid-latitude feature (like the approaching trough) with anything resembling accuracy or reliability. Given the unaminity of the global models (which should handle such a feature well) in turning Franklin to sea, that would seem to be a high probability forecast. The caveat to this, as mentioned in the discussion, is Franklin's small size; he's not exactly an easy target for the trough, it is possible that he would manage to evade it. A lower probability scenario, to be sure, but plausible enough to be of mild concern. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:18:16 AM trackback []
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| Once again, fell back on my Spanish to read another Emily article in El Universal. This one states that 80-90% of the dwellings along Laguna Madre were wiped out by the hurricane. Schools and churches were also described to have practially disappeared. The area has been declared a disaster zone. Like the U.S., residents of an area declared as such will receive federal aid. This map segment shows Laguna Madre. Easy to see how hopelessly vulnerable that area was with a hurricane passing immediately south of there. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []12:13:06 AM trackback []
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© Copyright
2005
Charles Fenwick
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Last update: 8/2/2005; 2:00:44 PM .
Last update: 8/2/2005; 2:00:44 PM .
