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Monday, July 18, 2005 |
| At 10 PM CDT the center of Hurricane Emily was at 22.9 North 92.1 West, 400 miles east-southeast of Brownsville Texas and moving to the west-northwest at 15 mph. Winds have increased to 90 mph and pressure is 983 millibars (29.03"). Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend up to 145 miles away. Emily seems to be getting better organized although pressure has yet to fall. Current intensity is based on a 90 knot flight level wind observed by the recon plane. Emily is expected to approach category three status prior to landfall and then weaken rapidly as she goes inland and runs into the mountains of Mexico. Emily's motion has slowed some. Heading is set at 300 degrees. Forecast track is slightly slower than the previous one, but is otherwise similar. Right now Emily's eye is elliptically shaped with the minor axis 30 nautical miles long and the major axis 50 nautical miles long. It looks like she is trying to shrink her eye, but since the indications noted in the last update, it hasn't actually happened. After deviating a little to the right of the forecast track somewhat alarmingly, Emily has been moving due west or just north of west. Every minute of movement like that is good news for south Texas. It is not clear if this is just a temporary movement or if this is an indication that she is running into the southern edge of the high pressure ridge. (When NHC sets the heading of a storm, it does so on an average of several hours, that's why motion is still set at 300 despite meanderings over a shorter term). In Mexico, El Universal reports that evacuations are taking place in Matamoros, Aldama, San Fernando and Soto La Marina in advance of Emily's anticipated arrival in Tamaulipas province. Another article states that there are 970 shelters on hand in that area. El Universal also reports Mexican president Vincente Fox stating that the affected areas of the Yucatan are ready for new tourists to arrive, that damage to the tourist areas is minor and the areas that were damaged will be repaired in two days. Going back to something mentioned earlier, we haven't seen pictures from the areas that should have received the most damage: Akumel, and Tumel. A poster on one of the message boards linked below stated that people were not being permitted to Tumel, they were told it was a 'disaster zone'. Given how anxious the Mexican government (and proprietors in the tourist area) are to paint a picture of an undamaged area, it is doubtful that those images from those areas will be seen in the mainstream media. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:09:43 PM  trackback []
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 While the east of Mexico is affected by Hurricane Emily, the west coast of Mexico is being affected by Tropical Storm Eugene. El Universal reported (Spanish) that one person drowned off Acapulco when is boat was overturned by high winds. 30 houses/dwellings in Acapulco are flooded as well as streets in various parts of the city. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []8:50:49 PM trackback []
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A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH AT 7 PM CDT the center of Hurricane Emily was at 22.6 North 91.5 West, 440 miles east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Movement is to the west-northwest at 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain 75 mph and minimum central pressure is 982 millibars (29.00"). Latest message from the recon plane indicates that Emily may be forming an inner eyewall, an indication that structural changes necessary for more rapid intensification are taking place. While people in south Texas are presently not expected to receive the worst of Emily, they should continue to make preparations. Any kind of deviation to the north from the forecast track would bring hurricane conditions to their area. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []8:12:12 PM trackback []
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| At 4 PM CDT the center of Hurricane Emily was at 22.3 North 91.0 West, 480 miles east-southeast of Brownsville Texas and moving to the west-northwest at 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 75 mph and minimum central pressure is 983 millibars (29.03"). Hurricane hunter confirmed that Emily was significantly weakened by passing over the Yucatan Peninsula. Warm waters and favorable upper level winds suggest that Emily will strengthen before second landfall. However, having lost so much strength, it is a bit uncertain whether she will become a major hurricane again. A ridge of high pressure extending across the Gulf of Mexico is expected to remain as it is or grow larger. That would keep Emily on her current course and bring her to Tamaulipas, Mexico in 24-36 hours. As a slight northward deviation from track would bring her close to southern Texas, a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning have been issued for that area. Reconnaisance plane just reported that Emily's eye is 60 nautical miles in diameter. Not quite as big as Frances' eye got but close. It is hard to seee how that kind of structure would enable her to do much strengthening (you'll remember that Frances didn't do much when her eye became so large) . However, as Emily has been full of surprises, a cautious watch should be kept nonetheless. With the forecast being backed up by afternoon observations from planes sampling the upper-air enviroment it looks pretty high confidence at this point, although it is will remain a tense time for south Texans until it is verified that the high is firmly in place and Emily takes the more westerly turn away from them and into Mexico. Not much new to report damage-wise from Cancun and Cozumel. Power outages remain wide-spread although it is unclear how much of that is because of damage and how much of that is because of it being turned off as a precautionary measure. From the message board tidbits I have seen (see post below for link), the town of San Miguel and points north on the western side of the island did not take that much damage, however, points south and on the eastern side of the island were hit hard. It is worthwhile to remember the geography of the area and the size of Emily. Cancun was far enough north of the point of landfall that they didn't see sustained hurricane force winds. Even Playa del Carmen was 30 miles or so from the point of landfall (To put it in terms of Hurricane Dennis, it is the difference between Navarre Beach and Fort Walton). On Cozumel, San Miguel is about 10 miles from the southern part of the island (and is not on the open sea-side of the island, it faces the mainland. The other The area that I haven't seen reports from that you would expect the most damage from is Akumal, which would appear to have been just at or north of the eyewall. LATER: A couple more message board links: Akumal and Playa del Carmen 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:29:06 PM trackback []
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| At 2 PM EDT the center of Hurricane Emily was at 22.0 North 90.3 West, 510 miles east-southeast of Brownsville Texas and moving to the west-northwest at 17 mph. The hurricane hunter reports maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and minimum central pressure of 984 millibars (29.06"). Some re-strengthening is expected today. So, if the reports of lighter damage are acurate, we have gotten the best of both worlds, land weakened Emily significantly without Emily doing much damage to it. However, the reports are far from thorough at this time. I forgot to post it earlier, here is the forecast track. Right now it does keep Emily away from Brownsville enough that they would receive minimal hurricane force winds, if that. However, the forecaster's discussion notes that the average error in 48 hour forecasts is large enough for the storm to still be of concern for residents of southern Texas. While upper-level winds appear favorable for strengthening and Sea Surface Temperatures are warm. this analysis indicates that Emily is going to run between the areas of warmest temperatures...that will hold her strength down a little. However, remember that Dennis was badly beated down by passage over Cuba the same way Emily has been beaten down and he came back stronger than ever (Emily shouldn't pull that off exactly, but she should become a formidable hurricane once again).. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []2:12:10 PM trackback []
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| Emily is back over water and a recon plane is inbound to determine what affects land had on her. The 11 AM advisory set wind strength at 1 00 mph and noted that the hurricane is expected to return to category three strength today. I've been scouring for damage reports in the media and from individuals. Here's a Cozumel message board with reports from individuals saying that from what they have seen in their limited area things aren't so bad. This report from a Cancun newspaper indicates heavy flooding and 'spectacular demolishments' in Cozumel. Also says 4 meter (13 foot) waves were observed in Cancun. Of course, there are widespread power outages. I'll post more as I come across it. As I mentioned in my last post last night, Cancun received at most minimum hurricane force winds. You wouldn't expect to see much damage there. It is Cozumel (especially the southern part of the island) and the area immediately north of Tulum that is of concern. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []1:24:02 PM trackback []
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© Copyright
2005
Charles Fenwick
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Last update: 8/2/2005; 2:00:41 PM .
Last update: 8/2/2005; 2:00:41 PM .
