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Tuesday, July 12, 2005 |
| At 11 PM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Emily was at 10.7 North 54.7 West, 370 miles east-southeast of Barbados. Movement is just south of west at 20 mph with a turn to the west-northwest expected in the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are up to 60 mph and pressure is an estimated 997 millibars(29.44"). Emily has been moving just south of due west for the past few hours. This forced a southward shift to the entire forecast track , which is based on the consensus of the dyamic track models. The forecaster acknowledges how the NOGAPS model keeps Emily moving due west and how the current motion would support that forecast, but he opted to go with the consensus nonetheless. The deep convection that was missing this afternoon is now present; based on the better satellite appearance the forecaster opted to up the intensity estimate to 60 mph; an increase from estimates of 50 mph as late as 8 PM tonight. Intensity forecast is essentially unchanged and neither is the reasoning. Low shear and warm Sea Surface Temperatures are expected to aid development. The south of west motion is a surprise to me, which means that it is a bigger surprise to NHC. Their model guidance insists that Emily is going to pull out of it quickly and start moving west-northwest and NHC continues to buy into that idea. I don't like the idea of going with the model consensus in this situation. The models that are turning Emily to the northwest have been doing that for a day now and the idea yet to pan out. It seems to me that something is causing an inherent bias in those models that they can't shake off. NOGAPS, on the other hand is on track with its forecast. While I wouldn't expect the NHC forecaster to buy into the NOGAPS forecast entirely, I would have thought he would have given it more weight to the forecast; instead he treated all of the forecasts as of equal merit. As far as intensity goes, I may have misread the situation. However, we won't really know for sure until the recon plane goes in tomorrow morning (with a fix of the center scheduled for 8 AM). The precise location of the storm's center is arguable at this time. Errors in its placement would throw off the intensity estimates. At this point it would not be surprising if recon found a storm slightly weaker than originally estimated. Based on the NHC forecast, people with vaction plans for Cancun or Cozumel Mexico this weekend and/or the beginning of next week may want to being contigency planning. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:49:19 PM  trackback []
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| At 5 PM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Emily was at 11.1 North 52 .8 West, 475 miles east-southeast of Barbados. Movement is to the west at 20 mph with a turn to the northwest expected during the next 24 hours. Winds continue to be estimated at 50 mph and pressure is estimated to be 1000 mb (29.53") Thunderstorm activity related to Emily has waned this afternoon, however, her overall organization still looks good. NHC model guidance has shifted southward again and still feature a fairly tight cluster of tracks. Emily is expected to resume strengthening overnight and the intensity models continue to bring Emily to category three strength; because of that, the intensity forecast is unchanged. The only thing that argues against strengthening is past history; to this point the storms in 2005 have paid no attention to history. The discussion points out that while we generally expect a storm to cool the water along its track, it appears that Dennis has actually made parts of the Carribean warmer, therefore more favorable for storms. Very interesting afternoon watching Emily made moreso with the latest forecast and discussion. The big question near term appears to be if and when Emily breaks off her westerly course and gets a bit of a northerly compnent in her movement. It appears to me that this westerly course has been bad for her as it keeps her immediately behind a pocket of very dry air. NHC seems to think that this turn will happen fairly soon, with them finding solace in the GFDL and UKMET models. The problem I see with that thinking is that both models have had a history with this storm of turning the storm too soon. NOGAPS and to a lesser extent (in the near-mid term), the European model are keeping Emily further south. A possible argument against NOGAPS is that it does not seem to be picking up on a trough that is digging southward towards the Carribean. The digging trough could have the effect of allowing a northwesterly motion for Emily. It is not clear to me that Emily is going to be far enough north to really be effected by it, however. In their most recent run, NOAA's intensity models trimmed their estimates of maximum intensity by a few knots, probably because of thir southward shift in track. Despite this, NHC did not adjust their intensity forecast. They appear to be arguing that the only thing holding the intensity down in the models is climatology (storms running this far south generally tend to not strengthen much). NHC counters that this season climatology can be thrown out the window. The consequence of the argument is that they focus solely on their interpretation of what conditions are and how they are going to be. I am skeptical of the forecast. I am not as sure as they seem to be that Emily is going to take a west-northwest turn in the near term. I think this would have the effect of keeping Emily's intensity down as she won't be able to get out of the dry air enviroment that is immediately in front of her. It won't take very long to see who has the more correct forecast of her feature movement. Looking long term, there are two schools of thought with regards to Emily's movement. Right now, the official forecast track supports Emily being able to get into the Gulf of Mexico and being a threat to Texas. The other school, which the NOGAPS and European models belong to, keep Emily too far south to have a chance to get to the Gulf; they bring her ashore at the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. At this moment, I belong to the latter school of thought. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:50:42 PM trackback []
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| At 11 AM EDT the center of strenghtening Tropical Storm Emily was at 11.0 North 51.3 West, 575 miles east of Barbados and moving west at the signifcantly increased rate of 20 mph. Wind estimates are up to 50mph and pressure is down to an estimated 1000 millibars (29.53"). Emily's organization continues to improve. She seems to have crossed the threshold of between unorganized and organized where intensification becomes signifcantly more rapid. Estimate of motion is considerably faster than previous ones. Models, which have had a penchant for turning Emily to the northwest sooner appear to moving their forecasts south and west over the past 12 hours. Strengthening high pressure ridge to the north of Emily should keep her on a west-northwest track for the next five days. Official track is shifted 100 nautical miles south of the previous advisory. Forecast track continues to be volatile as Emily seems to be keeping a step ahead of the forecasters. The Area Forecast Discussion from Miami last night contained this remark: LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE The area that looks certain to be affected by Emily are the southern Leeward Islands, which took a hard hit from Ivan last year. Hurricane watches are up for Barbados, Grenada, the Grenadines, St. Vincent, and St. Lucia. The global forecast models are still far from a consensus. The GFS inexplicably and totally unacceptably continues to fail to display Emily in its initialization; this renders it useless. UKMET and NOGAPS have had a better grip on the situation. Their tracks have moved south and west with the UKMET bringing Emily around the western tip of Cuba in 5 days and in the middle of Gulf of Mexico on the sixth; NOGAPS keeps Emily heading west longer and has her hitting the Yucatan Peninsula in six days. The Canadian is an extreme outlier, it shifted north from its last run and brings Emily to the Florida Keys in four days and south of Louisana in six. That scenario seems implausible at this time; it makes one remember how for several runs that model wanted to run Dennis up the middle/west coast of Florida. With the exception of the islands that are due east of Emily, everyone else looks to be afforded the luxury of having at least two days to watch the storm before having to worry about preparations. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []1:37:02 PM trackback []
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© Copyright
2005
Charles Fenwick
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Last update: 8/2/2005; 2:00:38 PM .
Last update: 8/2/2005; 2:00:38 PM .
