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Tuesday, July 05, 2005 |
| At 11 PM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Dennis was at 14.6 North 69.2 West, 345 miles southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti and moving to the west northwest at 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds are at 50 mph. Minimum central pressure is 1000 millibars (29.53"). Dennis' organization has improved in the past six hours. Wind intensity was set based on an approximation derived from the flight level winds of the hurricane hunter earlier this evening. Models are in close agreement with their track forecast through 72 hours, but things get uncertain after that. Forecast track is at the rightmost (easternmost) extreme of the model guidance Because of the excellent conditions, the intensity forecast is sharply increased, but still, it is below some of their model guidance in both timing and ultimate intensity. History argues that early season storms such as this don't become major hurricanes. However, history argued that there wouldn't be a fourth tropical storm today, but here we are. This a very serious situation that should be monitored closely by all residents of the Gulf coast from Texas to Key West. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:21:08 PM  trackback []
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| At 10 PM CDT the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was 20 miles south-southwest of Grand Isle LA and moving north-northeast at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 70 mph and minimum central pressure is 997 millibars (29.44") For a time this evening it looked like Cindy may be a hurricane, but it seemed to the apparent strengthening trend seemed to stop in the last hour or two, possibly due to the storm bringing up cold water from the shallow bottom of coastal water. Models agree with a turn to the northeast by twelve to eighteen hours. Not much weakening is expected in the next 12 hours even though the storm will be over land (because it is marshland). Cindy is as close to a hurricane as a storm can be without being called one. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:02:08 PM trackback []
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| At 8 PM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Dennis was at 14.3 North 68.5 West, 385 miles south-southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti and moving to the west-northwest at 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds are up to 45 mph and pressure is down to 1001 mb (29.56") Hurricane hunter dropped about a dozen dropsondes between 7:30 and 8:00, presumably to help collect data for the forecast models so that they are initizalized well. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []8:32:43 PM trackback []
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| At 8 PM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was at 28.5 North 90.3 West, 55 miles south-southwest of Grand Isles Louisiana. Maximum sustained winds remain at 70 mph though pressure has fallen to 1002 millibars (29.29"). Hurricane hunter found that 1002 mb center minutes before the package was sent out. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []8:27:47 PM trackback []
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| At 5 PM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Dennis was at 14.2 North 68.3 West, 405 miles south-southwest of San Juan, PR. Movement is to the west northwest at 20 mph. Winds continue to be estimated at 40 mph and pressure is nudged down to 1005 mb. Organization is improving. NHC intensity forecast is on the conservative side of their models, nevertheless, they bring Dennis to hurricane strength in a mere 36 hours. Models have good agreement through 72 hours. Forecast track is along the same path, albeit at a slightly quicker pace. Hurricane hunter will be in the system soon to give us some actual data...should be in time for the data go be part of the 8 PM package... 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:23:13 PM trackback []
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A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA Hurricane hunter instruments suggested winds at hurricane strength, but they were nudged downwards to lack of confidence in their precision. Forecast track nudged slightly east for the latter part of the forecast period. At about 4:30 EDT hurricane hunters found a 997 millibar center. The plane should be on station a bit longer, so there is the outside chance of this still being bumped to a hurricane (a symbolic difference really, as there is little time for any kind of significant intensification). 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []4:54:37 PM trackback []
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 I've been spending too much time looking at current events to have time to look at forecast models. Looks like the 12Z runs shifted their tracks to the west a la Ivan. Have not looked at the Canadian model (not displayed here; was an eastern outlier on the 00Z run). LATER: Canadian model is still an east outlier. It runs Dennis northwest very near to the Florida coast before a landfall in the vicinity of (say) Fort Walton on Saturday night 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []3:12:56 PM trackback []
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| At 12 PM CDT the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was at 27.6 North 90.4 West, 125 miles southwest of the Mississippi River. Movement is to the north at 14 mph Winds are up to 60 mph and pressure is down to 1000 millibars. The advisory refers to a ship observation of 60 knots (66 mph) taken about 30 nm northeast from the center of Cindy. It appears that she is availing herself of the warm waters off the coast to make a last ditch run at hurricane strength. A hurricane hunter is now on station taking observations. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []2:06:34 PM trackback []
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SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR HAS Enviroment is favorable for strenghening. Forecast track is in agreement with model guidance. Too soon to speculate on landfall locations. While the track forecast looks good (as the cone of uncertainty covers all of the possibilities offered by the models through five days), I do wonder about the intensity forecast. It brings Dennis steadily to 75 knots in four days and holds it at five days. This may be underdone for the period after Dennis passes over Cuba. Florida residents are advised to be mindful of the cone of uncertainty. While the center line forecast keeps the storm off-shore, it would take only a slight change in heading to bring the storm ashore in southwest Florida. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:20:01 AM trackback []
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| At 10 AM CDT the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was at 27.0 North 90.4 West, 165 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and moving to the north at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds are up to 50 mph and minimum central pressure remains 1002 millibars (29.59"). The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended to Destin, Florida and a Tropical Storm Watch now extends from there to Indian Pass. Forecast track is shifted to the right slightly. Storm is assymetric in form with most of the weather to its eastern half. Significant intensification is unlikely before landfall. Cindy reminds me of Frances in central/north Florida as far as her uneveness goes. The half of it that does have weather is well organized now. It kind of looks like someone lopped off the western half of the storm. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []10:59:27 AM trackback []
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| At 4 AM CDT the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was at 25.6 North 90.4 West, 255 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Movement is to the north-northwest at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds are up to 40 mph and minimum central pressure as fallen to 1002 millibars (29.59") Tropical Storm Warning is up from Intracoastal City, Louisana to Pascagoula, Mississippi. Tropical Storm Watch extends from there to Destin, Florida. The looks of the storm on satellite have not really improved, but the hurricane hunter found the center of low pressure and the winds necessary to classify it as a tropical storm. No significant strengthening is forecast Official forecast is shifted slightly to the right. The 1002 mb ob, which was noted at 4:25 AM EDT was the shocker. Earlier in the flight a 1006 mb low had been found. That combined with the high (compared to previous flights) winds locked the case for TD3 becoming the third tropical storm of the season. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:02:58 AM trackback []
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| Well all of the models agree that Tropical Depression Four will be the first hurricane of the season (unless somehow TD 3 miraculously beats it to the punch). All of them have it effecting the western Florida Keys within five days. After that similarities start to break down. The outlier appears to be the Canadian model. It puts the storm on top of the Fort Myers area in 96 hours (Friday night) and moves it quickly to the north-northeast after that. A slightly less dramatic outlier is the NOGAPS model which appears to put the storm on the coast between Fort Myers and Tampa in 120 hours (Saturday night) and moves it northwest along the Gulf Coast thereafter. The other models have a consensus position at 120 hours (Saturday night) that could be described as the intersection of a line drawn west from Key West and a line drawn southwest from Fort Myers. From there they diverge. The UKMET seems to move it on a more northerly course after that, which would bring it to Pensacola in a week or so. The European model moves it northwest from there and brings it to MS/LA in one week's time. The GFS model moves it west-northwest and brings it to TX/LA in eight days. One key factor for the forecast after 72 hours is how Tropical Depression Three develops and moves compared to each model's expectations. We may not see much more consensus in the models with regard to TD4 until TD3 is resolved. While the CMC scenario is far from a certainty, it does suggest that people in southwest Florida and the Keys should be mindful of the potential of a Charley-like situation by the end of this week (track-wise, that is. I do not mean to suggest that this is being to forecast to explosively strengthen the way Charley did). 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []3:50:52 AM trackback []
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© Copyright
2005
Charles Fenwick
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Last update: 8/2/2005; 2:00:32 PM .
Last update: 8/2/2005; 2:00:32 PM .
