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Tuesday, July 19, 2005 |
| At 10 PM CDT the center of Hurricane Emily was at 24.5 North 96.4 West, 115 miles south-east of Matamors Mexico and moving to the west-northwest at 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 125 mph and minimum central pressure is 944 millibars ( 27.88"). Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend up to 160 miles from the center. Pressure continues to fall. Flight level winds observed by the recon plane and satellite estimates support the intensity being set where it is. Given the impressive organization displayed on radar, some intensification is possible before landfall. Emily's movement to the west is expected to continue. Track forecast is along the same path as previously, but is adjusted to account for Emily's stall earlier. After racing across the Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula, Emily is crawling towards the finish line. I have no knowledge whatsover of what the northern Mexico coastline is like, but if it is sandy then I would expect there to be heavy beach erosion due to the sustained high waves that are going to be pounding the coastline as Emily creeps ashore. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:12:47 PM  trackback []
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| At 8 PM CDT the center of Hurricane Emily was at 24.4 North 96.1 West miles 135 miles southeast of Brownsville Texas and temporarily stalled . However, a motion to the west or west-northwest at 10 mph is expected soon. Maximum sustained winds are 125 mph and minimum central pressure is 948 millibars. Hurricane force winds extend 60 miles and tropical storm force winds extend 160 miles from the center. The stall is not worrisome as far as future direction goes; it is all but certain that Emily will go in at or near the forecast location. It is bad as far as beach erosion goes. Fortunately, Brownsville radar indicates that the heavy rain bands are still offshore. Otherwise, flooding would become more of a concern than it already is. Reading El Universal, it sounds like Tamaulipas state in Mexico is well prepared for the arrival of Emily. This article states that over 17,000 people have been evacuated to more than 900 shelters, while another article describes the scene at a shelter which is housing artesians, fisherman, and their children from La Pesca and Miguel de la Madrid. A women stated that they were already accustomed to the risks associated with the area that they live in, but that they are prepared much sooner than they were in the past. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []9:10:56 PM trackback []
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| Ok, this is a bit more sane... the new correct pressure is 949 milibars... a significant pressure drop, but not heart-stopping like the now dubious observation of 942 millibars from earlier... 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []7:11:13 PM trackback []
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| At 6:30 PM EDT the center of Hurricane Emily was at 24.5 North 96.0 West, 105 miles east of Bahia Algodones Mexico and 135 miles southeast of Brownsville Texas. Movement is to the west-northwest at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds are up to 125 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure is 945 millibars. Hurricane force winds extend up to 60 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []6:45:00 PM trackback []
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| A 'corrected' observation was sent out stating that the reported pressure of 942 millibars is now being considered 'suspect' because the pressure reported by the dropsonde and the height of the 700 millibar pressure level recorded by the airplane disagree with each other (i.e. the height recorded by the airplane doesn't support a sea level pressure that low). 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []6:41:10 PM trackback []
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| From NHC DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []6:08:59 PM trackback []
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| From the National Hurricane Center: DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:54:10 PM trackback []
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| Recon just reported a pressure of 942 millibars, an astounding fall of 14 millibars in the time of 1 hour 45 minutes. Emily is intensifying extremely rapidly... 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:41:38 PM trackback []
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| The maximum 30 second average winds found in the northeast quadrant were 120 knots, which would suggest that Emily has surface winds of 120-125 mph, putting her easily at category three status. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:35:35 PM trackback []
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| At 4 PM CDT the center of Hurricane Emily was at 24.3 North 95.6 West, 145 miles east-northeast of La Pesca Mexico and 160 miles southeast of Brownsville Texas. Movement is to the west-northwest at 12 mph with a gradual turn to the west expected to occur late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Maximum sustained winds are 105 mph and minimum central pressure is 956 millibars (28.23"). Hurricane force winds extend 50 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles. Radar, satellite, and recon observations continue to show that Emily is still getting better organized. Pressure has dropped 14 millibars in the past 4 hours, but the recon data shows that maximum flight level winds are only up to 96 knots. The pressure gradient seems to be more spread out, which would keep the wind speeds down. When the track is smoothed out, the storm's heading is 290 degrees at a speed of 10 knots. A general motion of 285/290 degrees should continue for the next 12 hours and possibly up through landfall, after that motion should be to the west. If Emily were to maintain a heading of 295 the rest of the way, she would still wind up about 50 nautical miles south of Texas. Forecast track is shifted slightly to the north. "The big question is 'When will Emily's winds finally adjust to the central pressure?'" The eye has continued to become better defined and there may be signs from radar that structural changes are ocurring that would allow the maximum winds to spin up more. Combined with the warm sea surface temperatures and favorable upper-air conditions, it is likely that a round of rapid intensification will occur over the next 12 hours or until landfall occurs. Current intensity forecast brings Emily up to category three strength at landfall. If Emily follows the forecast track, then hurricane force winds will not be felt in southern Texas, however deviation to the north would bring hurricane conditions to extreme southern Texas. That was a great forecast discussion by Stacy Stewart. It covered everything thoroughly. Can't write anything better than that, especially given the hectic conditions that exist at the National Hurricane Center when a storm is this close to land. The recon plane is about to pass through the eye and into the northwest quadrant. I'll throw up a post when the data from that comes in. Residents of south Texas looking for forecast information should check out NWS Brownsville and NWS Corpus Christi. As I have mentioned earlier there are all kinds of flood watches and warnings and such in that area. Also, tornado watch number 646 is in effect for that area and probably will be extended through the time of Emily's landfall. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:18:40 PM trackback []
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| At 1930 Z (2:30 CDT) recon found pressure to be 956 millibars, a 3 millibar drop in 1.5 hours yielding a drop of 2 millibars per hour. Not as steep as the last drop (or more accurately, crash or plummet), but a respectable drop nonetheless. Also, recon reported 96 knot flight level winds in the northest quadrant (equivalent to 95 mph surface winds). However, given that the northwest quadrant winds are generally weaker than those of the northeast quadrant, and given the pressure fall, one would have to think maximum surface winds are now up to 105-110 mph. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []4:25:22 PM trackback []
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| At 2 PM CDT the center of Hurricane Emily was at 24.1 North 95.2 West, 185 miles east of La Pesca, Mexico and 165 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Emily is moving to the west-northwest at 13 mph with a gradual turn to the west expected tonight. Maximum sustained winds are up to 100 mph and minimum central pressure is down to 959 millibars (28.32"). Hurricane force winds now extend 50 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend up to 150 miles out. The center of Emily is now apparent on Brownsville's long range radar. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []3:07:12 PM trackback []
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A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
I went to bed last night knowing that pressure had finally started falling (it was at 980 millibars at the time). The first thing Emily related I did this morning was look at the visual satellite imagery. My first thought was 105-115 mph winds. Quite surprising to see that winds have not changed. It is doubtful that they will stay there for long as Emily looks much better organized than she did last night and she is passing over some of the warmest waters in the Gulf. As the front page of KRIS tv's page says: "Hurricane Emily is still too close for comfort for many in Brownsville". Indeed, people in that area should finish preparations in case Emily wanders to the north. Those in low lying areas should be aware of the flood watches that are in effect in the area; see the National Weather Service, Brownsville page for details. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:51:42 AM trackback []
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© Copyright
2005
Charles Fenwick
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Last update: 8/2/2005; 2:00:42 PM .
Last update: 8/2/2005; 2:00:42 PM .
