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Wednesday, July 13, 2005 |
| At 11 PM EDT the center of Hurricane Emily was at 11.9 North 61.1 West, 45 miles east-southeast of Grenada. Emily is moving to the west at 18 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Winds are up to 90 mph and pressure is down to 992 millibars (29.29") First part of discussion walks through how they set the intensity for the 8 PM advisory then goes into the sequence of events with the recon observations. The jump in intensity causes the intensity forecast to jump; it now brings Emily to category three status in 48 hours. Official track is shifted to the right to account for the newly positioned center. FLASHBACK TO PREVIOUS POST
Recon plane just launched and is scheduled to make fix the center of
the storm at 8 PM EDT. Based on what infrared satellite has show
in the past few hours we may see an increase in strength at that
time.
Um, yeah... I would say so... When I wrote that I was expecting they
would find something like 70/75 mph not 90... also wasn't expecting an
8 millibar drop in three hours, but it happened.Have spent the past few hours in nowcasting mode, not forecasting mode, so I'll stop commenting now as my thinking is a bit overtaken by events. I will say though that the forecast track showing landfall south of Cancun on Sunday night / Monday morning still looks reasonable... 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:29:19 PM  trackback []
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...EMILY BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED... 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []10:11:48 PM trackback []
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| At 5 PM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Emily was at 11.4 North 59.8 West, 125 miles south of Barbados and 135 miles east-southeast of Grenada. Movement is to the west at 18 mph with a turn to the west-northwest expected during the next 24 hours. Winds and pressure remain at an estimated 60 mph and (29.62") Although there has been an increase in deep convection in the past three hours, wind estimate remains set at 60 mph. Heading is set at 275, which isn't really west-northwest, but "it's a start". Forecast track is mostly an update to the previous one with no substantial changes. Large scale conditions continue to remain favorable for development and intensity models continue to make Emily a major hurricane in the western Carribean. While Emily is expected to pass through the windward islands as a tropical storm, the forecaster notes that higher elevations such as those found in Grenada may experience hurricane force winds. The end result of the forecast track is pretty much what the NOGAPS and European models were showing this morning. The UKMET seems to have gone crazy; it is indicating a landfall in southeast Louisana six days from now. That is such a big change from the past few runs that it has little credibility at this time. The intensity forecast is looking more plausible in the near term, however, with the amount of shear currently present in the central Carribean, Emily's subsequent development may be impeded; something to keep an eye on. Recon plane just launched and is scheduled to make fix the center of the storm at 8 PM EDT. Based on what infrared satellite has show in the past few hours we may see an increase in strength at that time. The other interesting thing will be where they fix the center. While NHC undoubtedly has a better grip on it than I would, it is hard to tell exactly where the center is. That makes it difficult to tell what Emily's current heading is (and as I have talked about before, her course will have a significant impact on her prospects for strengthening). Once again, I'll close with the note that people with vacation plans for the area of and around Cancun and Cozumel for this weekend and the beginning of next week may want to consider what their options are with regards to cancelling or rescheduling their trip... 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:30:57 PM trackback []
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| At 11 AM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Emily was at 11.2 North 58.1 West, 165 miles southeast of Barbados. Movement is to the west at 20 mph with a turn to the west-northwest expected in the next 24 hours. Winds are 60 mph and pressure is estimated to be 1003 millibars. The crew of the recon plane visually estimated surface winds of 65 mph while their instrument observations suggested surface winds of 50-55 mph. The forecaster split the difference for this advisory. Emily continues on a "stubborn" track due west. The expected west-northwest turn has yet to materialize. Forecast track is adjusted to the left and is closer to NOGAPS than the overall model consensus. Forecaster presumes that lack of convection to the north is because of Emily being in a dry enviroment. However, with upper level winds still favorable for strengthening, the forecaster has not backed off his intensity forecast, which brings Emily to hurricane strength in 24 hours and to major hurricane strength in 72 hours. He does note that if Emily doesn't move north a bit she will be without low-level moisture, that will impede her ability to intensify. This discussion gets into some of the stuff I was talking about in my comments at 5 PM yesterday. There is no way the intensity forecast will prove to be correct without a turn to the west-northwest. As far as the track forecast goes, I am pleased to see that they gave NOGAPS some favor in this forecast (that is something I talked about in my previous comments). However, I continue to be a bit puzzled at the insistence that a turn to the west-northwest will occur. Last night's NOGAPS forecast kept Emily even closer to the South American coast to the previous one with a very gradual curve to the west-northwest. Other global models turn it more sharply sooner; the only good thing about them that I can say is that at least they weren't insisting that Emily was going to magically start moving west-northwest right at the beginning, which is what most of NOAA's guidance models have been trying to do. NHC's forecasters obviously have more faith in that sharper turn to the west-northwest than I do as their intensity forecast bets the house on it happening. My skepticism regarding the forecast continues. I'll close my remarks once again with the note for people who had travel plans for Cancun or Cozumel (or a cruise ship in that vicinity). Based on the National Hurricane Center's forecast, your vacation plans aren't looking too great at the moment. You may want to see what your options are as far as cancelling/rescheduling are. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:49:27 AM trackback []
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© Copyright
2005
Charles Fenwick
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Last update: 8/2/2005; 2:00:38 PM .
Last update: 8/2/2005; 2:00:38 PM .
