Tropics Watch 0728
As Tropical Storm Franklin moves out of the picture, attention shifts back south to the tropical Atlantic. From the 11 AM Tropical Weather Outlook:
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN AND NEAR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Some more details in the Tropical Weather Discussion
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 22N52W 17N54W TO A 1013 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N54W TO 10N54W...MOVING WEST 20 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 47W AND 50W...AND FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. THIS WAVE SHOWS
UP QUITE WELL IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT MAY REACH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...OR AT
LEAST POSSIBLY SOME OF THE SHOWERS TRAVELING WITH IT MAY REACH
THE ISLANDS BEFORE THE ACTUAL WAVE ARRIVES. COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY MAY BECOME
THE MORE DOMINANT PART WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
MARGINAL. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS SET TO REACH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY INTO PUERTO RICO POSSIBLY LATE FRIDAY.
THE GFS MODEL THOUGH SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
NHC has been keeping an eye on this wave since Monday or so but it
hasn't started showing signs of life until today. The global
forecast models are starting to come together in saying that something
substantive will form from this. The suggestion is that if some
preliminary organization occurs, it will be able to become Tropical
Storm Harvey by Monday.
As mentioned in the Outlook, a recon plane will investigate the system
tomorrow if it appears organization is occurring. If they find a
center of circulation, then the NHC will announce the formation of
Tropical Depression 9.
Since nothing definitive has formed yet it is too soon to talk about
specific areas that should be concerned. A general concern exists
for the southeastern United States from Florida to North
Carolina. The majority of the models are suggesting a scenario
like Hurricane Bonnie or Hurricane Danielle
of 1998, where the area of concern would be North Carolina. At
this time the ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic does not appear to
be positioned to cause a situation like Frances of last year.
However, that situation is subject to change, so one cannot declare an
all clear for Florida based soley on the present.
2005 Hurricane Season, Weather 1:21:44 PM 
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