|Sunday, August 07, 2005|
...NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE CENTRAL
At 11AM EDT, the center of newly formed Tropical Storm Irene was at 20.5 North 45.5 West, 1160 miles of east of the northern leeward islands and moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph and minimum central pressure is 1005 millibars (29.68").
This was an annoying storm to track last night as the center disappeared for a few hours and then rappeareed to the north of its previouls location. The system had played a similar game yesterday morning.
Looking at the visible satellite loop, the storm almost looked impressive (or at least the best it had ever looked) earlier this morning. That appearance has since degraded, however, as the shear analysis shows that it has a hostile 20+ knots of shear to contend with.
Track forecast remains to my expectations. The only chance for Irene to affect any kind of
land is to pass over Bermuda, and now it looks like she may not make it even that far west. The situation in the atmosphere remains in line with what was expected. Also, the record of the past 55 years shows that no storms that were within 50 nautical miles of Irene's 11 AM position affected land. (The only one to come close was a weak tropical storm that dissipated just north of the Windward Islands. The present atmospheric situation clearly prevents such a path). Like yesterday, it is not a question if the storm will turn to sea, only when.
2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment 12:08:38 PM   trackback