Monday, August 22, 2005

Tropical Storm Jose Update 2215Z At  6:15 PM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Jose was at 19.6 North 95.4 West, 60 miles east-northeast of Veracruz Mexico and moving to the west at 6 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph and minimum central pressure is 1002 millibars (29.59"). Tropical Storm Jose Special Advisory Number Three Recon plane recorded 54 knot winds, which suggest 45 knot winds at the surface.  Also, the center fix given by the plane indicates that the storm is moving slower than previously supposed.  The new forecast track assumes that this motion will continue and indicates landfall occurring tomorrow morning.  Intensity forecast has some slight strenghtening happening before landfall.  Due to the slow forward speed, the primary threat is flooding and mudslides once Jose goes ashore. Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number Three Official track forecast There's no mention of it in the discussion, but it is probable that the 60 knot surface ob was deemed to be unrepresentative of the storm, but was either a gust, or a downburst. Some people are probably wondering why there was a significant difference between the intensity given in the 5 PM advisory and the intensity found by recon shortly thereafter, some people are probably asking why that happened. The intensity given in the 5 PM advisory was based off satellite estimates.  Those estimates are made before 2 PM EDT (and yes, there is a reason why they are not aligned with the advisory packages, but no, I won't go into it here).  Jose certainly did not have the same appearance then that it does now (it was weaker).  Also, the position of the center was highly uncertain.  If the center is not placed in the right spot, then the intensity estimates will be off.  The estimates provided were of reasonable quality given the limitations of the estimation method that are exposed when the exact position of the center is uncertain.    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now the clock starts ticking for the possibility of the 2005 season continuing its streak of earliest named storms.  The record for the earliest 11th named storm belongs to 1995.  Karen of that year formed at 06Z (2 AM EDT) on the 28th.  The earliest 12th named storm, Luis, also of 1995, formed 18 hours later.  So, will the records be broken?  Like the ESPN commercials used to say, 'It could happen, so you better watch'.        2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []7:07:23 PM   trackback []

Tropical Storm Jose  ZCZC MIATCUAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 425 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 ...RECONNIASSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM JOSE... SHORTLY AFTER 400 PM CDT... RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM JOSE WERE NEAR 45 MPH. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY... MAINLY TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECASTER KNABB 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:30:05 PM   trackback []

Tropical Depression Eleven Update 222100Z At  5 PM EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was at 19.6 North 95.7 West, 45 miles northeast of  Veracruz, Mexico and moving to the west at 8 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are estimated to benear 35 mph and minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars (29.74"). Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 2 Cutting this short because recon plane just found 35 knot winds at the surface... which suggest a tropical storm... ok... continuing... Recon plane is investigating the storm at this time.  30 knot estimate was based off satellite image analysis.  The storm has an excellent appearance but has only another 12 hours or so over water.  Should it become a tropical storm it would be the earliest 11th (sic) named storm on record.  Rapid weakening will occur once the storm goes inland.  While the GFDL model stalls the storm off-shore, the offical forecast is in line with that of the Beta and Advection models (BAMs), which do bring the storm ashore.  If the storm were to deviate to the north, further intensification would occur.  Primary threat is heavy rain and flooding. Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2 This would not be the elventh named storm, it would be the tenth. The old record (for earliest tenth tropical storm observed in the Atlantic) ocurred in 1995 when Jerry formed on the afternoon of the 23rd. And yes I said old... recon just found 60 knot winds at the surface...  expect an update very soon...      2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:08:20 PM   trackback []

Tropics Watch 0822 Other highlights in the Tropical Weather Outlook: DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...AND DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD. Tropical Depression Ten was sufficiently enough destoryed by shear such that anything that forms from this will probably receive a new number.  (Although this activity started in the general vicinity of the last position of the low level center of the ex-tropical depression, it is proabably more accurately described as being from the tropical wave that was behind it). While there isn't anything organized, just a loose bunch of thunderstorms, a variety of forecast models are selling the idea of it becoming better organized, with it either heading north through the Bahamas, or west through the Florida Straits into the Gulf of Mexico.  Because of the its relative proximity to land, the system will have to be watched closely.  NHC has pencilled in recon flights to start early tomorrow afternoon if it looks like the system is developing. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 450 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. The forecast models were very bullish on this system before it came off of Africa.  Since then, however, they have been less enthusiastic.  Very dry air to the north appears to be impeding development.  This system looks to be a repeat of some combination of Irene and TD 10 as it  underperforms against expectations. In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary may be at her peak intensity at 105 mph.  Her tropical storm force wind field is very large and caused tropical storm warnings to be posted for the Mexican coast despite her being well off-shore. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []12:30:04 PM   trackback []

Tropical Depression Eleven Update At 12 PM EDT, the center of Tropical Depression was near 19.5 North 95.0 West, 80 miles east-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico and moving to the west at 8 miles per hour.  Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph and minimum central pressure is estimated to be 1008 millibars (29.77"). Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number One Satellite and radar observations indicated the formation of a tropical depression.  Intensity estimate is based off satellite observation.  Coniditions are favorable for development, however, the storm does not have much time to intensify before it will be over land.  While model guidance does not suggest the system will become a tropical storm, the forecaster opts to be cautious and forecast the depression reaching tropical storm strength.  A reconnaisance plane will be in the storm this afternoon to provide better information on the storm's strength. Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number One Forecast track Certainly an impressive amount of convection present thanks to the warm waters, however, I'm not sure that it has enough organization to make tropical storm status.  As always, the reconnaisance plane, which is scheduled to go into the storm by 5 PM EDT.   2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []12:04:56 PM   trackback []

Tropical Depression Eleven forms WONT41 KNHC 221436 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 935 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 ...ELEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON IS FORMING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING WITHIN THE DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN Yet another storm of the Bret and Gert variety.  Forming over the Bay of Campeche and moving west it will barely have enough time to have a chance of reaching tropical storm status.  At the moment conditions seem favorable enough for that to happen before it moves inland. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:22:18 AM   trackback []