Wednesday, August 10, 2005



Tropical Storm Irene Update 110300Z



At  11 PM EDT, the center of re-upgraded Tropical Storm Irene was at 23.5 North 59.8 West, 680 miles south-southeast of Bermuda  and moving to the west-northwest at 13 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are a satellite estimated 40 mph and minimum central pressure is estimated at 1005 millibars (29.68").

Irene's cloud pattern is better organized once again.  All three agencies that provide intensity estimates based on satellite imagery estimated an intensity of 35 knots, so Irene is once again rated as a tropical storm.  Shear that has been affecting Irene today is expected to abate, so intensification is forecast (bringing Irene to hurricane strength in four days).  Current motion is estimated to be 11 knots with a heading of 290.  However, recent fixes from satellite suggest that the heading may be north of that.  Track guidance is split as to whether Irene will affect land or not.  NHC forecast is to the left of most of the models, yet is similar to the FSU Super-Ensemble. 

  
I have been out and about all day today... the only bit I've seen of Irene since my last update was only about 15 minutes worth, and I had not looked at much this morning either.

With that caveat, my concern is currently for the Outer Banks.  People doing a weekly cottage rental starting this Saturday will certainly want to keep a fairly close eye on Irene from here on out (same for the year round residents, but they will get some notice of Irene from local media.  People who rent cottages tend to be northerners who wouldn't necessarily be seeing news of Irene).



2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []10:55:35 PM   trackback [] 


Tropical Depression Irene Update101500Z



At  11 AM EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Irene was at 22.4 North 57.7 West, 810 miles southeast of Bermuda  and moving to the west at 10 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are 35 and minimum central pressure is 1009 millibars (29.80 ").

Cloud pattern is better organized this morning, but finding the center still remains a challenge.  Initial motion estimate is 275 at 10 knots.  Global models have had a bias of 20-30 degrees in their heading (turning Irene too far north while she continues to move due west).  General reasoning in the track forecast is unchanged.  Irene is exepected to move around the periphery of the high pressure ridge off the east coast.  Official forecast is to the left (west) of the previous forecast.  If west-ward movement continues today then the track will have to be shifted even further left.  Slow intensification is forecast bringing Irene near hurricane strength by the end of the forecast period

Irene lives.


  

2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []12:15:42 PM   trackback []