Microsoft's Smartphone: Embrace and extend
Slowly but surely, Microsoft is making progress in the smartphone sphere. It has been taking a long time. I suspect Microsoft underestimated the difficulty of penetrating the wireless data industry, in terms of negotiating with the wireless industry and the challenges of the environment. Early versions of Microsoft's operating system (such as Windows CE) for wireless were too big, power-hungry and difficult to navigate.
But the Stinger platform for cellular device has evolved to the Smartphone 2002. The platform has the potential for a lot of synergy with other Microsoft platforms, such the portable Pocket PC platforms as well as the desktop and corporate Windows 2000/XP platforms.
The future of wireless will be color screens and lots of bells and whistles that enable users to personalize their wireless device and make it fun. That means music, games and video (yes, people will want video -- with the appropriate device and speed).
The future also is wireless integration with corporate applications and Microsoft certainly has an advantage over other operating systems.
WAP has been a disaster not only because of poor network reliability, slow speeds and a scarcity of compelling applications, but also because it's too "skeletal" for most people. WAP is a stick figure and most people want to look at a full figure!
User needs and desires
It doesn't matter that WAP is designed to be spectrally efficient for wireless. Users don't care. If you use the words "wireless Internet," you had better satisfy user expectations. WAP does not = wireless Internet.
I think "SmartDevice 2002" would be a better name for an overall wireless platform. The cellular phone is but one form factor, and it's a rather crummy form for data. The cellular and PDA manufacturers are trying hard to create a great wireless voice and data device, but most efforts are turning a silk purse into a sow's ear.
Devices are indeed getting better. The Handpring Treo and Danger hiptop are two examples of best-of-breed wireless data products. Not perfect, but a lot better than combination voice-data devices released last year.
Notebook computers and PDAs will play increasingly important roles in wireless. Personally, I am eagerly awaiting the new Intel XScale chips for PDAs. My Compaq IPAQ 3600 doesn't process fast enough when I'm using a WiFi network, let alone a slower cellular connection. And the WiFi compact flash card eats battery life like a starving dog going after a steak.
I was thinking of buying a new Pocket PC 2002, but I'm going to wait until the higher-speed, more battery-efficient (supposedly) XScale PDAs are introduced in the second and third quarter. The Fujitsu Siemens Pocket LOOX GSM GPRS/Bluetooth phone/PDA supposedly has XScale.
Infosync has a nice article about Smartphone 2002. The screen shots highlight the value of color. The sooner the better. Yes, people will compromise with monchrome if they can get dramatically better battery life. But there will come a point where battery life is "good enough." In Japan, for example, color LCDs are a big hit. Battery life is reduced, but it's "good enough." Once you have a cellular phone with a color screen you will not want monochrome.
OS wars
My hunch is the wireless OS market will be won by Microsoft and Java and, maybe, Palm. I think Symbian will lose. The wireless industry didn't want to be "controlled" by Microsoft -- the way the cellular operators "control" todays subscribers -- so they rallied around Symbian. Also, Microsoft's Windows CE platform was dreadful for wireless.
But Microsoft is learning, the way it generally does. I wish, though, that we would see more Java applications for cellular.
3:12:47 PM 
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