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 Wednesday, December 11, 2002
One Hundred Interesting Mathematical Calculations, Number 1. One Hundred Interesting Mathematical Calculations, Number 1 Returning From World War II Bombing Missions: Suppose that you are a bomber pilot flying a B-17 in the European Theater of Operations during World War II. You know that 4% of bombers get shot down on average on each mission. You want to calculate the chance that you would successfully fly all the missions of your tour of duty--to make things simple, let's say 50 (a larger number than was actually asked... [Semi-Daily Journal]
A very useful calculation and a wonderful explanation of how to use an algebraic approach to its solution rather than simply using a calculator. I hit this all the time when I was doing oligonucleotide synthesis as a postdoc. For a 15-mer, if your yield per round was 90%, you would end up with a final product yield of 20%. Not a very efficient process. If you could get your effectiveness up to 95%, then your final yield would be 46%. 99% would yield 86% after 14 rounds. So, finding ways to make each step more effecient could have huge effects on the final amount of product. 11:31:17 PM 
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Mega-project no more. Instead of a ``mega-project corridor'' stretching from Redmond to Seattle, officials are considering a $1.6 billion to $1.9 billion, new six-lane State Route 520 bridge only from Medina to Montlake. [Home]
OK, I am confused. In the article they talk about the computer simulations of a six-lane bridge vs an eight-lane one in 2030. NOw I-5 then will be complete gridlock, so the traffic on 520 will back up onto the bridge. Now look at these quotes: Morning gridlock on an eight-lane bridge would seize up at the gridlocked I-5 and back up all the way to Interstate 405. For four hours, traffic would move at 10 mph, computer analysis showed, and it would take an hour to get from Redmond to Seattle. By comparison, in 2030 the morning commute on a new six-lane bridge -- like today's four-lane bridge but with an HOV lane in each direction-- would only back up from I-5 to Medina because it couldn't carry as many cars. The trip from Redmond to Seattle would take about 20 minutes, Rubstello said.
Of course it can't carry as many cars. The eight lane is fully gridlocked for 13 miles. The 6 lane is only gridlocked for about 6. Where did all the extra cars go? The number of cars needing to get to Seattle should be the same so how can a bridge that carries less people be less crowded? Maybe there is some sort of magic HOV lane that will carry them all. Very confusing article about something that will be a long time coming. Come on. Only increasing the number of lanes across the water but not at the interchanges. This only creates choke points. These interchanges already get clogged. Having another lane of traffic feeding in to them, even HOV, will not really speed things up. I want my Jetson flying car that Hanna-Barbara promised us. 10:25:09 PM
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Technical difficulties can be so embarassing.. A message to all the United States' friends: please stand by.
[aka shrubbery] [a klog apart]
ALthough I don't agree with all of this, it is a wonderful example of the strong political debate America always has about almost anything. we are more introspective than almost any other country. Being able to challenge the status quo and being able to change it or ourselves are two of our strengths. All the stuff about Trent Lott and Strom Thurmond the past week amply displays this. Both Strom and Trent were originally Democrats. African-Americans used to be mostly Republicans. Over the last 50 years, this changed, as the segregationists left the Democratic party and moved into the Republican. Now both Strom and Trent are allowed to express their opinions. AND we should also realize that their opinions can change. Holding someone to what they said 20 years ago should not be acceptiable, especially if they have expressed different opinions more recently and can explain their change of heart. For example, I believe that George Wallace did sincerely repudiate his earlier views. I am not so convinced that Strom did. Actions speak much louder than words. What people say can be misleading. It could be revealing or it could just be a simple mistake. Look at their actions. Both smart and stupid people say stupid things. Stupid people actually DO stupid things. 10:11:01 PM
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Google tells us who, what, when were the most popular searches in 2002. This is always interesting and tells us more about people as a whole than most polls. 9:57:47 PM
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"Tax Caps Are Killing Libraries". There's a depressing story in today's issue of The Star newspaper, Library Labors: Autonomy makes it harder to raise money for expansion, new programs. It illustrates the funding problems library districts are facing due to tax caps. Some of the larger municipal libraries in the area are undertaking large construction projects, while smaller district libraries are coping with undersized, over-cramped buildings. All but one of the libraries mentioned in the article are members of my Library System, so it's difficult to watch the dichotomy from the inside.
"Municipal libraries in home rule communities are not tied to state tax cap laws, which limit the increase taxing bodies can levy for each year. Some home rule communities, however, do have self-imposed tax caps.
'Tax caps are killing libraries,' said Pam Nelson, director of the Alsip-Merrionette Public Library District.
This year's Consumer Price Index [~] the federal government's measure of inflation [~] is 1.66 percent. That's all the district can legally increase its levy by without asking voters to approve a referendum.
Meanwhile costs such as book prices have risen by about 3 percent at the library, Nelson said. The district also had to give raises of between 2 [product] and 3 [product] percent in order to keep some of its employees.
The library board cut the adult book and youth services budget about $25,000 to make up for the shortfall in revenue, Nelson said. The staffing budget was also cut because some positions were left open after employees left, she said."
It's a sad situation that's only going to get worse. Please make sure you support your local public library, because it's there to support you. [The Shifted Librarian]
It is going to be really interesting to see what happens when basic services people expect, such as roads, libraries, parks, start disappearing. King County is already going to shut down the library syustem for 2 weeks to save money. Either we will find some creative way to make do, raise taxes, or get some demagogue in there to blame all the problems on someone else (i.e. terrorists, Muslims, liberals, nerds, government). Roughly 50 of the population wants better government while the other 50% wants NO government. The policy of the latter group is to get as many people to dislike government as possible. Making it impossible to provide services that people want is one way to get this to happen. 9:49:24 PM
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Got my parts for the basketball backboard today. Nice customer service from Lifetime. Called Monday morning. Here wednesday afternoon. I just love companies that do the right thing so well. And the are good products. 8:45:17 PM
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